Wu Menghan, Hong Cheng, Dou Zhengdong
School of Public Health, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, 241002, Anhui, China.
Wuhu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhu, 241000, Anhui, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Mar 9;15(1):8153. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-92882-0.
In China and globally, to analyze the temporal trends of HIV incidence and age, period and cohort effects from 1990 to 2021. A Joinpoint regression model was applied to analyze the time-varying trends of standardized HIV incidence rates worldwide and in China from 1990 to 2021, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The study also explored the effects of age, period, and cohort on HIV incidence trends. From 1990 to 2021, the global standardized incidence of AIDS increased initially and then declined, with females experiencing a higher disease burden than males. In China, the burden was greater in males than females. The age-period-cohort model revealed that the global risk of AIDS incidence peaked between ages 60 and 69, while in China, it was highest between ages 75 and 79. From 1990 to 2021, the global and Chinese standardized incidence rates of AIDS generally followed an increasing trend before declining, with notable gender differences and the highest incidence rates observed in older populations. It is important to address the issues related to AIDS among the elderly and develop targeted health policies to reduce societal burdens and improve public health.
在中国和全球范围内，分析1990年至2021年期间艾滋病毒发病率的时间趋势以及年龄、时期和队列效应。应用Joinpoint回归模型，利用2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据，分析1990年至2021年全球和中国标准化艾滋病毒发病率的随时间变化趋势。该研究还探讨了年龄、时期和队列对艾滋病毒发病率趋势的影响。1990年至2021年期间，全球艾滋病标准化发病率先上升后下降，女性的疾病负担高于男性。在中国，男性的负担高于女性。年龄-时期-队列模型显示，全球艾滋病发病风险在60至69岁之间达到峰值，而在中国，发病风险在75至79岁之间最高。1990年至2021年期间，全球和中国艾滋病标准化发病率总体上呈先上升后下降的趋势，存在显著的性别差异，且在老年人群中发病率最高。解决老年人中与艾滋病相关的问题并制定有针对性的卫生政策以减轻社会负担和改善公众健康非常重要。
