A simple model relevant to toxoplasmosis applied to epidemiologic results in France.

A simple mathematical model was applied to the results of a seroepidemiologic study of toxoplasmosis carried out in France in 1982-1983. An adequate fitting to the prevalence data observed on 7,605 women of childbearing age was obtained. Thus, the data were used to estimate the seroconversion rate, allowing the approach to and discussion of insights gained from the model, such as the risk of Toxoplasma infection during pregnancy, the age-related expected risks of maternal seroconversion, as well as an overall prediction of the yearly number of congenitally infected infants in the total population. In addition, the high prevalence of congenital toxoplasmosis in France and the excess risk encountered by young migrant women from lower prevalence areas were confirmed by the model. The model might therefore be useful for public health purposes in other countries.