Grummon Anna H, Barrett Jessica L, Block Jason P, McCulloch Stephanie, Bolton Amy, Dupuis Roxanne, Petimar Joshua, Gortmaker Steven L
Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, California; Department of Health Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California.
Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Am J Prev Med. 2025 Feb;68(2):300-310. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2024.10.007. Epub 2024 Oct 16.
The U.S. has required chain food establishments-including supermarkets-to display calorie labels on prepared (i.e., ready-to-eat) foods since 2018. Implementation of this supermarket calorie labeling policy reduced purchases of prepared foods from supermarkets, but it remains unknown whether the policy is cost-effective.
In 2023-2024, this study applied the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study (CHOICES) microsimulation model to estimate the effects of the supermarket calorie labeling policy on health, costs, and cost-effectiveness over 10 years (2018-2027) for the U.S.
The model projected benefits overall and among racial, ethnic, and income subgroups. Sensitivity analyses varied assumptions about the extent to which consumers replace calorie reductions from prepared foods with calories from other sources (i.e., caloric compensation).
From 2018-2027, the supermarket calorie labeling policy was projected to save $348 million in healthcare costs (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]=$263, $426 million), prevent 21,700 cases of obesity (95% UI: 18,200-25,400), including 3,890 cases of childhood obesity (95% UI=2,680, 5,120), and lead to 15,100 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained across the U.S. population (95% UI=10,900, 20,500). The policy was projected to prevent cases of obesity and childhood obesity across all racial, ethnic, and income groups. The policy was projected to be cost-saving when assuming low and moderate caloric compensation and cost-effective when assuming very high caloric compensation.
A policy requiring calorie labels on prepared foods in supermarkets was projected to be cost-saving or cost-effective and lead to reductions in obesity across all racial, ethnic, and income groups.
自2018年以来，美国要求包括超市在内的连锁食品企业在预制（即即食）食品上标明卡路里含量。这项超市卡路里标签政策的实施减少了从超市购买的预制食品，但该政策是否具有成本效益仍不清楚。
在2023年至2024年期间，本研究应用儿童肥胖干预成本效益研究（CHOICES）微观模拟模型，来估计超市卡路里标签政策在10年（2018年至2027年）内对美国健康、成本和成本效益的影响。
该模型预测了总体以及种族、族裔和收入亚组的收益。敏感性分析改变了关于消费者用其他来源的卡路里（即热量补偿）替代预制食品中减少的卡路里的程度的假设。
从2018年到2027年，超市卡路里标签政策预计将节省3.48亿美元的医疗保健成本（95%不确定性区间[UI] = 2.63亿美元，4.26亿美元），预防21700例肥胖症（95% UI：18200 - 25400例），包括3890例儿童肥胖症（95% UI = 2680，5120例），并使美国总人口获得15100个质量调整生命年（QALY）（95% UI = 10900，20500）。该政策预计将在所有种族、族裔和收入群体中预防肥胖症和儿童肥胖症病例。当假设热量补偿较低和中等时，该政策预计将节省成本；当假设热量补偿非常高时，该政策预计将具有成本效益。
一项要求超市预制食品标明卡路里标签的政策预计将节省成本或具有成本效益，并导致所有种族、族裔和收入群体的肥胖症减少。
