Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Glob Public Health. 2024 Jan;19(1):2415499. doi: 10.1080/17441692.2024.2415499. Epub 2024 Oct 21.
This article focuses on the UK's pre-COVID 19 pandemic preparedness and its early response to the COVID-19 pandemic (January '20 - March '20). The aim of this article is to explain the high excess mortality the UK experienced compared to many of its international and European peers in the first wave, which is contrary to the country's high ranking in pre-COVID-19 preparedness rankings. The article assesses the various components of pre-COVID-19 pandemic preparedness such as pandemic strategy, exercises, and stockpiles, and it covers government decision making processes on the early response, including questions around post-travel quarantining, test and trace, and mobility restrictions. The article concludes that there were important deficiencies in the UK's pandemic preparedness and early response in the COVID-19 pandemic. These include the centrality of the 'inevitability of spread'-assumption underpinning the UK's pandemic planning pre-COVID, the insufficient implementation of pandemic exercise recommendations, the lack of early and 'live learning' from other countries' experiences, the lack of adoption of public health advice of the World Health Organisation early on, the late implementation of internal mobility restrictions, the lack of timely consideration of alternative early pandemic response models, and fragilities in the SAGE/governmental interplay.
本文重点介绍了英国在 COVID-19 大流行之前的准备情况及其对 COVID-19 大流行的早期应对措施(2020 年 1 月至 3 月)。本文旨在解释英国在第一波疫情中与许多国际和欧洲同行相比出现的高超额死亡率,而这与该国在 COVID-19 大流行之前的高准备排名相悖。文章评估了 COVID-19 大流行之前的各种准备工作,如大流行战略、演习和储备,并涵盖了政府在早期应对方面的决策过程,包括对旅行后检疫、检测和追踪以及流动限制的质疑。本文的结论是,英国在 COVID-19 大流行的大流行准备和早期应对方面存在重要缺陷。这些缺陷包括在 COVID 之前的大流行规划中支撑英国大流行计划的“传播不可避免”假设的核心地位、对大流行演习建议的实施不足、缺乏早期的“实时学习”来自其他国家的经验、早期对世界卫生组织的公共卫生建议采纳不足、内部流动限制的实施滞后、没有及时考虑替代早期大流行应对模式的可能性,以及 SAGE/政府互动中的脆弱性。