School of Management and Information Sciences, Tama University, Tokyo, Japan.
Graduate School of Health Management, Keio University, Kanagawa, Japan.
J Med Internet Res. 2024 Oct 21;26:e51710. doi: 10.2196/51710.
Suicide is the leading cause of death among children and adolescents in Japan. Internet search volume may be useful in detecting suicide risk. However, few studies have shown an association between suicides attempted by children and adolescents and their internet search volume.
This study aimed to examine the relationship between the number of suicides and the volume of school-related internet searches to identify the search terms that could serve as the leading indicators of suicide prevention among children and adolescents.
We used data on weekly suicides attempted by elementary, middle, and high school students in Japan from 2016 to 2020, provided by the National Police Agency. Internet search volume was weekly data for 20 school-related terms obtained from Google Trends. Granger causality and cross-correlation analysis were performed to estimate the temporal back-and-forth and lag between suicide deaths and search volume for the related terms.
The search queries "I do not want to go to school" and "study" showed Granger causality with suicide incidences. The cross-correlation analysis showed significant positive correlations in the range of -2 to 2 for "I do not want to go to school" (highest value at time lag 0, r=0.28), and -1 to 2 for "study" (highest value at time lag -1, r=0.18), indicating that the search volume increased as the number of suicides increased. Furthermore, during the COVID-19 pandemic period (January-December 2020), the search trend for "I do not want to go to school," unlike "study," was highly associated with suicide frequency.
Monitoring the volume of internet searches for "I do not want to go to school" could be useful for the early detection of suicide risk among children and adolescents and for optimizing web-based helpline displays.
自杀是日本儿童和青少年的主要死因。互联网搜索量可能有助于发现自杀风险。然而，很少有研究表明儿童和青少年尝试自杀的数量与其互联网搜索量之间存在关联。
本研究旨在探讨自杀人数与与学校相关的互联网搜索量之间的关系，以确定可作为儿童和青少年预防自杀的主要指标的搜索词。
我们使用了日本 2016 年至 2020 年期间国家警察厅提供的小学生、初中生和高中生每周自杀尝试的数据。互联网搜索量是从 Google Trends 获得的 20 个与学校相关的术语的每周数据。进行格兰杰因果关系和交叉相关分析，以估计自杀死亡与相关术语搜索量之间的时间前后和滞后关系。
搜索查询“我不想上学”和“学习”与自杀发生率存在格兰杰因果关系。交叉相关分析显示，“我不想上学”（在时间滞后 0 时最高值，r=0.28）的范围在-2 到 2 之间，以及“学习”（在时间滞后-1 时最高值，r=0.18）的范围在-1 到 2 之间存在显著正相关，表明随着自杀人数的增加，搜索量增加。此外，在 COVID-19 大流行期间（2020 年 1 月至 12 月），与“学习”不同，“我不想上学”的搜索趋势与自杀频率高度相关。
监测“我不想上学”的互联网搜索量可能有助于早期发现儿童和青少年的自杀风险，并优化基于网络的热线显示。
