Wesselbaum Dennis, Hansen Paul
Department of Economics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
J R Soc N Z. 2022 Mar 20;52(5):569-579. doi: 10.1080/03036758.2022.2048675. eCollection 2022.
Countries around the world, including New Zealand, have used lockdowns to slow the transmission of COVID-19. Reducing transmission depends crucially on people's compliance with lockdowns, which depends on, among other things, their design. We report on a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) completed by 16 COVID-19 experts to discover how they feel about the relative importance (weight) of possible lockdown features in terms of how the features are experienced, independently of their effectiveness at controlling the pandemic. DCEs are widely used to understand people's preferences with respect to the relative importance of the features of, in the present context, lockdowns. The lockdown features, in decreasing order of importance as determined by the DCE in terms of their inconvenience or unpleasantness, are (mean weights in parentheses): 'travel restrictions' (24.6%), 'total cost of a vaccination (out-of-pocket or from taxes)' (22.1%), 'school closures' (19.4%), 'work from home' (17.9%), 'required to stay at home' (9.6%) and 'required to wear masks in public' (6.5%). These results could be used by policy-makers to design lockdowns that are both effective in public health terms most likely to be complied with. A larger-scale study involving the general population could be conducted in the future.
包括新西兰在内的世界各国都采用了封锁措施来减缓新冠病毒的传播。减少传播关键取决于人们对封锁措施的遵守情况，而这又取决于诸多因素，其中包括封锁措施的设计。我们报告了一项由16位新冠病毒专家完成的离散选择实验（DCE），以了解他们对于可能的封锁措施特征在实际体验方面的相对重要性（权重）的看法，而不考虑这些特征在控制疫情方面的有效性。离散选择实验被广泛用于了解人们在当前背景下对于封锁措施特征相对重要性的偏好。根据离散选择实验确定的按不便程度或不愉快程度降序排列的封锁措施特征如下（括号内为平均权重）：“旅行限制”（24.6%）、“疫苗接种的总成本（自付费用或税收支出）”（22.1%）、“学校关闭”（19.4%）、“居家办公”（17.9%）、“必须待在家中”（9.6%）以及“必须在公共场所佩戴口罩”（6.5%）。政策制定者可以利用这些结果来设计在公共卫生方面既有效又最有可能得到遵守的封锁措施。未来可以开展一项涉及普通民众的更大规模研究。
