Iftekhar Emil Nafis, Priesemann Viola, Balling Rudi, Bauer Simon, Beutels Philippe, Calero Valdez André, Cuschieri Sarah, Czypionka Thomas, Dumpis Uga, Glaab Enrico, Grill Eva, Hanson Claudia, Hotulainen Pirta, Klimek Peter, Kretzschmar Mirjam, Krüger Tyll, Krutzinna Jenny, Low Nicola, Machado Helena, Martins Carlos, McKee Martin, Mohr Sebastian Bernd, Nassehi Armin, Perc Matjaž, Petelos Elena, Pickersgill Martyn, Prainsack Barbara, Rocklöv Joacim, Schernhammer Eva, Staines Anthony, Szczurek Ewa, Tsiodras Sotirios, Van Gucht Steven, Willeit Peter
Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany.
University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2021 Sep;8:100185. doi: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185. Epub 2021 Jul 30.
How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行在未来几个月和几年将如何发展？基于一项专家调查，我们研究了可能影响欧洲COVID-19大流行的关键方面。这些挑战和发展将很大程度上取决于国家和全球疫苗接种计划的进展、值得关注的变异株（VOC）的出现和传播，以及公众对非药物干预措施（NPI）的反应。短期内，许多人仍未接种疫苗，VOC继续出现和传播，预计流动性和人群混合情况将增加。因此，过早、过度解除限制有引发另一波破坏性疫情的风险。尽管鉴于疫苗接种进展以及2021年夏季室内混合情况减少，传播机会有所降低，但这一挑战依然存在。2021年秋季，室内活动增加可能会再次加速传播，而重新实施必要的NPI可能过于缓慢。如果疫苗接种水平不够高，发病率可能会再次大幅上升，可能导致重症监护病房人满为患。因此，适度、适应性的NPI水平仍将是必要的。这些流行病学方面的情况，再加上经济、社会和健康相关后果，为COVID-19大流行的未来提供了一个更全面的视角。
