Foodborne and Waterborne Diseases Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Microbiology, School of Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Cancer Med. 2024 Oct;13(20):e70318. doi: 10.1002/cam4.70318.
Despite remarkable progress in contemporary medical technology and enhanced survival outcomes for various cancer types, pancreatic cancer (PC) continues to stand out as a particularly deadly gastrointestinal malignancy. Given a persistent rise in both incidence and the corresponding mortality rates of PC globally, evaluations of PC burden by sex are of great importance. Here, we used the illness-death multi-state model (IDM) to forecast the prevalence of PC through the year 2040.
IDM was established based on obtainable data to predict the future prevalence of PC on global, regional, and national scales from 2019 to 2040. Analyses were also performed regarding sex and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are presented for all estimates.
The projected prevalence rate for 2040 is anticipated to be 6.093 ([95% CI 5.47-6.786] per 100,000) worldwide, indicating a significant increase of 31.45% since 1990, and a 12.29% increase since 2019. The estimated average annual increase since 2020 was 0.5%. Considering sex differences, females are expected to have a steeper slope in prevalence rate than males. Intriguingly, when considering the percentage changes between the periods of 2019-2040 and 1990-2019 for both sexes, females exhibited 29% and 11% increase relative to males (2.6-fold greater increase).
By 2040, it is predicted that the prevalence of PC will increase globally, with women being at higher risk of developing the disease. Considering the percentage changes, regions with lower socioeconomic status are anticipated to face a greater risk of experiencing PC compared to other geographical areas.
尽管当代医学技术取得了显著进步，各种癌症类型的生存率也有所提高，但胰腺癌（PC）仍然是一种极具致命性的胃肠道恶性肿瘤。由于全球范围内 PC 的发病率和死亡率持续上升，因此按性别评估 PC 的负担至关重要。在这里，我们使用疾病-死亡多状态模型（IDM）来预测 2040 年 PC 的患病率。
基于可获得的数据建立 IDM，以预测 2019 年至 2040 年全球、区域和国家范围内 PC 的未来患病率。还针对性别进行了分析，所有估计值均提供了 95%置信区间（CI）。
预计 2040 年的预计患病率为 6.093（[95%CI 5.47-6.786]/100,000），与 1990 年相比增长了 31.45%，与 2019 年相比增长了 12.29%。自 2020 年以来，估计的年平均增长率为 0.5%。考虑到性别差异，女性的患病率增长率预计高于男性。有趣的是，当考虑 2019-2040 年和 1990-2019 年两个时期的性别之间的百分比变化时，女性的增长幅度比男性高 29%（增加了 2.6 倍）。
到 2040 年，预计全球 PC 的患病率将会增加，女性患该病的风险更高。考虑到百分比变化，与其他地理区域相比，社会经济地位较低的地区预计将面临更大的 PC 发病风险。
