不同气候区青少年自杀风险与环境温度及热浪的关系：澳大利亚新南威尔士州急诊科就诊情况的时间序列分析
Youth suicidality risk relative to ambient temperature and heatwaves across climate zones: A time series analysis of emergency department presentations in New South Wales, Australia.
作者信息
Dey Cybele, Wu Jianyun, Uesi John, Sara Grant, Dudley Michael, Knight Katherine, Scott James G, Jay Ollie, Bowden Michael, Perkes Iain E
机构信息
Department of Psychological Medicine, The Sydney Children's Hospitals Network, Westmead, NSW, Australia.
Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine & Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
出版信息
Aust N Z J Psychiatry. 2025 Jan;59(1):18-28. doi: 10.1177/00048674241290449. Epub 2024 Oct 23.
OBJECTIVE
Youth suicidality prevalence continues to rise alongside hot weather severity. Links between these two variables are underexplored. We examined associations between daily temperature and emergency department suicidality presentations by young people. We assessed these associations for five regions covering New South Wales as determined by 'climate zone' and analysed for heatwave effects as well as based on demographic subgroups.
METHODS
Daily emergency department presentations for suicidality by people aged 12-24 years across New South Wales, Australia, during warmer months (November to March) from 2012 to 2019 were examined in relation to daily mean temperature and heatwaves (⩾3 consecutive days ⩾ 95th percentile of long-term daily mean temperature) and by climate zone, using a generalised additive model with negative binomial distribution. Risks for age- and sex-based subgroups were also calculated.
RESULTS
New South Wales youth suicidality presentation rates were significantly higher on hotter days. For every 1°C rise above average daily mean temperature, youth suicidality presentations to New South Wales emergency departments increased by 1.3%. Heatwaves did not increase presentation rates beyond single-day daily mean temperature effects. These findings were predominantly replicated across climate zones and demographic subgroups, though the association between suicidality and ambient temperature was weaker in coastal regions including Eastern Sydney.
CONCLUSION
There is a positive linear association between ambient temperature and youth suicidality presentations to emergency departments. Risks are increased on single hot days, not only during heatwaves. Public health, broader societal approaches to heat and health system planning should consider impacts on youth suicidality of predicted increases in hot weather severity and frequency.
目的
青少年自杀倾向的患病率随着炎热天气的加剧而持续上升。这两个变量之间的联系尚未得到充分研究。我们研究了每日气温与年轻人到急诊科就诊的自杀倾向之间的关联。我们针对新南威尔士州根据“气候区”确定的五个地区评估了这些关联，并分析了热浪影响以及基于人口亚组的情况。
方法
对2012年至2019年澳大利亚新南威尔士州12 - 24岁人群在较温暖月份（11月至3月）因自杀倾向到急诊科的每日就诊情况进行研究，分析其与每日平均气温和热浪（连续≥3天≥长期每日平均气温的第95百分位数）的关系，并按气候区进行分析，使用具有负二项分布的广义相加模型。还计算了基于年龄和性别的亚组的风险。
结果
在较热的日子里，新南威尔士州青少年自杀倾向的就诊率显著更高。每日平均气温每高于平均水平1°C，新南威尔士州急诊科青少年自杀倾向的就诊率就增加1.3%。热浪并没有使就诊率在单日平均气温影响之外进一步增加。这些发现主要在各个气候区和人口亚组中得到重复，不过在包括东悉尼在内的沿海地区，自杀倾向与环境温度之间的关联较弱。
结论
环境温度与青少年到急诊科就诊的自杀倾向之间存在正线性关联。不仅在热浪期间，单个炎热日的风险也会增加。公共卫生、应对炎热的更广泛社会方法以及卫生系统规划应考虑炎热天气严重程度和频率的预测增加对青少年自杀倾向的影响。
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