Fuzzy bow-tie analysis for mitigating self-heating risks in maritime coal transportation.

Coal self-heating presents significant risks to maritime transportation, including spontaneous combustion, environmental damage, and economic losses. This study aims to apply a Fuzzy Bow-Tie analysis to assess and mitigate the risks associated with coal self-heating during transportation. By integrating expert judgments and addressing uncertainties in the data, the Fuzzy Bow-Tie model offers a comprehensive evaluation of risk factors and safety barriers. This leads to more reliable risk assessments compared to traditional deterministic methods, which are less capable of handling imprecise data. In marine pollution, where early identification of potential hazards (e.g., self-heating coal leading to toxic gas emissions) is critical, the Fuzzy Bow-Tie approach allows for more accurate forecasting of incidents that could result in environmental harm. Key findings reveal that improper ventilation, large air gaps between coal particles, and inaccurate declarations of coal properties are major contributors to self-heating incidents. Furthermore, inadequate cargo monitoring and non-compliance with the International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code exacerbate these risks. These insights provide practical guidance for maritime stakeholders, such as shipping companies and port authorities, to improve coal handling practices and enhance safety procedures. The Fuzzy Bow-Tie model provided a reliable and flexible tool for handling uncertainties and improving risk assessment in complex maritime environments. Overall, the study offers practical recommendations for shipping companies and port authorities to improve coal handling safety, reducing the potential for accidents and environmental harm.