Jia Yan, Jia Shuo, Pang Ruiqiu
School of Civil Engineering and Urban Planning, Liupanshui Normal University, Liupanshui, 553004, China.
College of Arts and Culture Management, Inner Mongolia Arts University, Hohhot, 010028, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Oct 23;14(1):25098. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-76705-2.
Investigating social vulnerability is a crucial aspect of attaining an in-depth understanding of disasters and disaster risk. This study developed a measurement framework for social vulnerability to geological disasters, obtained a comprehensive social vulnerability index, and compared the spatial distribution patterns of fatalities, social vulnerability, and geological disaster-prone zones. These efforts assisted in determining the strength and character of the relationship between geological disaster fatality risk and social vulnerability at the county level. The findings show that: (1) the social vulnerability to geological disasters index varies significantly between counties. High social vulnerability is primarily concentrated in Bijie City, Guizhou province, which shows concentrated clustering. Conversely, low social vulnerability is mainly concentrated in Guiyang City: (2) the spatial distribution patterns reveal the limitations of disaster exposure in explaining fatality risk and demonstrate the ability of social vulnerability to amplify disaster risk; (3) the zero-inflated negative binomial regression model fit the data significantly better than the negative binomial regression model, suggesting that for every one unit increase in the social vulnerability index, there is a 6.33% increase in the risk of fatalities, holding all other variables constant. This study establishes a specific framework for measuring social vulnerability to geological disasters and provides new evidence of how social vulnerability influences disaster risk intensity. The county-level spatial measurement results can further assist disaster management personnel in formulating more localized mitigation strategies. The findings will further support the identification of core remediation sites and the implementation of management and relocation (avoidance) projects during Guizhou Province's 14th Five-Year Plan for geological disaster prevention and control.
调查社会脆弱性是深入了解灾害及灾害风险的关键环节。本研究构建了地质灾害社会脆弱性测量框架，获取了综合社会脆弱性指数，并比较了死亡人数、社会脆弱性和地质灾害易发区的空间分布模式。这些工作有助于确定县级层面地质灾害死亡风险与社会脆弱性之间关系的强度和特征。研究结果表明：（1）各县之间地质灾害社会脆弱性指数差异显著。高社会脆弱性主要集中在贵州省毕节市，呈现集中聚类。相反，低社会脆弱性主要集中在贵阳市；（2）空间分布模式揭示了灾害暴露在解释死亡风险方面的局限性，并表明社会脆弱性具有放大灾害风险的能力；（3）零膨胀负二项回归模型对数据的拟合显著优于负二项回归模型，这表明在其他变量不变的情况下，社会脆弱性指数每增加一个单位，死亡风险增加6.33%。本研究建立了测量地质灾害社会脆弱性的具体框架，并提供了社会脆弱性如何影响灾害风险强度的新证据。县级空间测量结果可进一步协助灾害管理人员制定更具针对性的减灾策略。研究结果将进一步支持贵州省“十四五”地质灾害防治规划中核心整治点的确定以及治理和搬迁（避让）项目的实施。
