Yang Xi-Meng, Qian Bao-Wei, Ji Guang-Xing, Chen Wei-Qiang, Huang Jun-Chang, Guo Yu-Long, Chen Yi-Nan
College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2024 Oct 8;45(10):5970-5982. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202311034.
The Huaihe River Basin is located in the north-south climate transition zone of China. The change of carbon storage in this area is of great significance for predicting the future ecological protection, mitigating climate change, and maintaining sustainable development of the Huaihe River Basin. The middle and upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin （above Bengbu station） were taken as the research area. Based on the land use data from 1980 to 2020, the PLUS model was used to simulate and predict the land use types in the study area from 2030 to 2100 under the scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5, and the continuation of land use status. The carbon module in the InVEST model was used to simulate and predict the carbon storage from 1980 to 2020 and the carbon storage from 2030 to 2100 under various scenarios, and the spatial and temporal changes of carbon storage in the middle and upper reaches of the Huaihe River Basin were compared and analyzed. The results showed that： ① From 1980 to 2020, the basin showed a decrease in both cultivated land and grassland,and the area of forest,water, construction, and unused land all increased, among which the area of cultivated land continued to decrease, with a total decrease of 4 699 km in 40 a. Construction land continued to increase, with a total increase of 4 592 km in 40 a. ② The carbon storage in the basin showed a downward trend, with a total reduction of 1.05×10 t from 1980 to 2020. ③ In the four scenarios, the area of each land type had different degrees of change, and that of the SSP1-2.6 scenario was relatively small out of the four scenarios. ④ Compared with the carbon storage in 2020, the carbon storage in the SSP1-2.6 scenario increased by 8.7×10 t, the carbon storage in the SSP2-4.5 scenario decreased by 1.42×10 t, the carbon storage in the SSP5-8.5 scenario decreased by 1.34×10 t, and the carbon storage in the current continuation scenario decreased by 1.22×10 t. The study can provide a scientific basis for land use structure management and ecological protection in the middle and upper reaches of the Huaihe River Basin （above Bengbu station） in the future.
淮河流域位于中国南北气候过渡带。该地区碳储量的变化对于预测未来生态保护、缓解气候变化以及维持淮河流域的可持续发展具有重要意义。以淮河流域中下游（蚌埠站以上）为研究区域。基于1980年至2020年的土地利用数据，运用PLUS模型对研究区域在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5情景以及土地利用现状延续情景下2030年至2100年的土地利用类型进行模拟预测。利用InVEST模型中的碳模块对1980年至2020年的碳储量以及各情景下2030年至2100年的碳储量进行模拟预测，并对淮河流域中下游碳储量的时空变化进行比较分析。结果表明：①1980年至2020年，流域内耕地和草地面积均减少，林地、水域、建设用地和未利用地面积均增加，其中耕地面积持续减少，40年间共减少4699平方千米。建设用地持续增加，40年间共增加4592平方千米。②流域碳储量呈下降趋势，1980年至2020年共减少1.05×10亿吨。③在四种情景下，各地类面积均有不同程度变化，其中SSP1-2.6情景下变化相对较小。④与2020年碳储量相比，SSP1-2.6情景下碳储量增加8.7×10亿吨，SSP2-4.5情景下碳储量减少1.42×10亿吨，SSP5-8.5情景下碳储量减少1.34×10亿吨，现状延续情景下碳储量减少1.22×10亿吨。该研究可为未来淮河流域中下游（蚌埠站以上）土地利用结构管理和生态保护提供科学依据。
