School of Earth and Environment, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, 232001, Anhui, China.
Anhui Engineering Laboratory for Comprehensive Utilization of Water and Soil Resources & Ecological Protection in Mining Area With High Groundwater Level, Huainan, 232001, Anhui, China.
Environ Monit Assess. 2024 Aug 15;196(9):814. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-12957-9.
Evaluating the impact of large-scale human activities on carbon storage through land use changes is of growing interest in terrestrial ecosystem assessments. The Huaihe River Basin, a vital Chinese grain production area, has undergone marked land use changes amid socio-economic acceleration. Evaluating the impacts of land use change on carbon storage and future carbon sequestration is imperative for regional ecosystem sustainability and Chinese food security, simultaneously, furnishing data support to regional land use planning and decision-making processes. Nonetheless, the mechanisms linking land use changes to carbon storage and the future carbon reservoir responses remain unclear. We utilized a multi-source dataset and representative scenarios, integrating PLUS, InVEST models, and Geodetector to assess land use change impacts on carbon storage in the Huaihe River Basin (2000-2030). The data indicates the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land decreased by 28,344.69 km, construction land increased by 26,914.56 km, and other land types changed little. (2) Land use change resulted a carbon loss of 1.17 × 10 t, primarily due to the expansion of construction land. (3) All four simulation scenarios exhibited diminished carbon storage relative to 2020, with the economic development scenario recording the lowest at 4.98 × 10 t and the ecological protection scenario the highest at 5.06 × 10 t. (4) Elevation predominantly drives carbon storage changes, with its interaction with NPP having the greatest impact. The factors synergistically enhance their explanatory power. The research provides a scientific basis for strategies aimed at augmenting regional carbon sequestration and refining low-carbon land management, safeguarding ecosystem stability.
评估大规模人类活动通过土地利用变化对碳储存的影响是陆地生态系统评估中日益关注的问题。淮河流域是中国重要的粮食生产区，在社会经济加速发展的过程中，土地利用发生了显著变化。评估土地利用变化对碳储存和未来碳固存的影响，对于区域生态系统可持续性和中国粮食安全至关重要，同时为区域土地利用规划和决策过程提供数据支持。然而，土地利用变化与碳储存和未来碳库响应之间的联系机制尚不清楚。我们利用多源数据集和代表性情景，整合 PLUS、InVEST 模型和 Geodetector 来评估淮河流域（2000-2030 年）土地利用变化对碳储存的影响。数据表明：（1）2000 年至 2020 年，耕地减少 28344.69 平方公里，建设用地增加 26914.56 平方公里，其他土地类型变化不大。（2）土地利用变化导致碳损失 1.17×10 t，主要是由于建设用地的扩张。（3）与 2020 年相比，所有四个模拟情景的碳储量都有所减少，经济发展情景的减少量最低，为 4.98×10 t，生态保护情景的减少量最高，为 5.06×10 t。（4）海拔主要驱动碳储存变化，其与 NPP 的相互作用影响最大。这些因素协同增强了它们的解释力。该研究为旨在增加区域碳固存和完善低碳土地管理、维护生态系统稳定性的战略提供了科学依据。
