The value of Age-adjusted Charlson and Elixhauser-Van Walraven comorbidity index in predicting prognosis for patients undergoing heart valve surgery.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to compare the efficacy of the Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (ACCI) and the Elixhauser-Van Walraven Comorbidity Index (ECI-VW) in predicting mortality risk among patients undergoing heart valve surgery.

METHODS

Clinical data were extracted from the INSPIRE Database using R language. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve was employed to assess the predictive accuracy of ACCI and ECI-VW for in-hospital all-cause mortality and post-surgical all-cause mortality at 7 and 28 days. Subgroup analysis was conducted to validate the application efficacy, and the optimal cutoff value was identified.

RESULTS

The study included 996 patients, with 931 survivors and 65 cases of in-hospital all-cause mortality. The area under the curve (AUC) for ACCI in predicting in-hospital all-cause mortality was 0.658 (95% CI: 0.584, 0.732), while the AUC for ECI-vw in predicting the same outcome was 0.663 (95% CI: 0.584, 0.741). For predicting all-cause mortality within 7 days post-surgery, the AUC of ACCI was 0.680 (95% CI: 0.04, 0.56), and for ECI-vw, it was 0.532 (95% CI: 0.353, 0.712). Regarding the prediction of all-cause mortality within 28 days after surgery, the AUC for ACCI was 0.724 (95% CI: 0.622, 0.827), and for ECI-vw, it was 0.653 (95% CI: 0.538, 0.69). Patients were categorized into two groups based on the ACCI cutoff value of 3.5, including Group 1 (ACCI < 3.5 points, 823 cases) and Group 2 (ACCI > 3.5 points, 173 cases). The overall survival rate for these two patient groups was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, revealing that the 28-day postoperative survival rate for patients in Group 1 was significantly higher than that for patients in Group 2 (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

ACCI demonstrates significant predictive value for in-hospital all-cause mortality within 28 days following cardiac valve disease surgery. Patients presenting with an ACCI greater than 3.5 exhibit an increased risk of mortality within 28 days post-surgery compared to those with an ACCI less than 3.5. This finding suggests that the ACCI can serve as a preliminary tool for assessing the prognosis of patients undergoing this type of surgical intervention.