Wu Zhilong, Chen Hao, Zeng Tian, Yan Yushan, Zhang Mengyuan
College of Applied Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, No. 169, East Shuanggang Road, Jingkai District, Nanchang, 330013, China.
Institute of Ecological Civilization, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, 330013, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Oct 26;14(1):25482. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-77356-z.
Rural livelihood transition towards non-agriculturalization, non-grainization and even anti-urbanization has become a thorny social problem that undermines farmland resources and worldwide food security. Based on a simulation survey, this study explored the risk preferences and the livelihood transition mechanisms of typical farmers in the hilly and mountainous region. The results indicated that: (1) 76.86% of rural households exhibited risk aversion tendencies, with 60.67% being highly risk-averse. The ranking of risk aversion among the three typical farmers is consistent with asset abundance, with non-agriculture oriented households > semi-farmer and semi-labour households > vocational farmer households. (2) The non-grainization of vocational farmer households is significantly and positively correlated with the family labour force, land management area, and housing assets, yet negatively correlated with risk preferences. Compared to traditional grain cultivation, non-grainization in the hilly and mountainous region possesses lower risks and higher profitability for vocational farmer households. (3) The total non-agriculturalization of semi-farmer and semi-labour households correlates negatively with land management area but positively with family income. (4) Anti-urbanization and returning hometowns for farming are still regarded as a livelihood fallback by the non-agriculture oriented households, but excessive gift expenditure has become a heavy burden in rural society. Therefore, practical and systematical countermeasures are proposed in this research to guide sustainable livelihood transition.
农村生计向非农化、非粮化甚至逆城市化转变已成为一个棘手的社会问题，破坏了耕地资源和全球粮食安全。基于一项模拟调查，本研究探讨了丘陵山区典型农户的风险偏好和生计转型机制。结果表明：（1）76.86%的农村家庭表现出风险厌恶倾向，其中60.67%为高度风险厌恶型。三类典型农户的风险厌恶程度排序与资产丰裕程度一致，即非农业型农户＞半农半工型农户＞职业农民型农户。（2）职业农民型农户的非粮化与家庭劳动力、土地经营面积和住房资产显著正相关，但与风险偏好负相关。与传统粮食种植相比，丘陵山区职业农民型农户的非粮化风险更低、收益更高。（3）半农半工型农户的完全非农化与土地经营面积负相关，但与家庭收入正相关。（4）逆城市化和返乡务农仍被非农业型农户视为一种生计退路，但高额人情支出已成为农村社会的沉重负担。因此，本研究提出了切实可行的系统性对策，以引导可持续的生计转型。
