Tofu Daniel Assefa, Wolka Kebede
School of Natural Resource, Ambo University, Ethiopia.
Wondo Genet College of Forestry & Natural Resource, Hawassa University, Ethiopia.
Heliyon. 2023 Jan 3;9(1):e12790. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e12790. eCollection 2023 Jan.
Global climate change affects smallholders in sub-Saharan Africa. To cope with the changing situation, farmers employ adaptation strategies such as adjusting their livelihoods. The objective of this research was to evaluate the effects of climate change on the gradual transition in livelihood from cereal production to plantation in west Harareghe, Ethiopia. Data was gathered through interviews with 273 households, 8, focus groups, and 12 key informants. Descriptive statistics and an econometric model were used to analyze quantitative data, whereas content analysis with step preprocesses was utilized to analyze and report qualitative data. . The farm households responded that climatic extremes are posing severe impacts on soil fertility (80%), crop production (93%), livestock production (91%), water scarcity (92%), and adaptive capacity of the farmers (81%). As a result, about 86% of the farmers' have been putting more emphasis and progressively shifting their livelihood from cereal to crop plantation. Asides from the shrinking livelihood due to climatic shocks, high market access with better price and profitability, drought and water scarcity tolerance, ability to grow in degraded land, suitability for intercropping and three to five times harvest in a year are mentioned as the blessings attracted farmers' to shift to production. To reduce susceptibility to climate change impacts, approximately 81%, 78%, and 77% of framers, respectively, used managerial (e.g., intercropping and petty trade), technological (e.g., terracing and improved crop variety), and policy-driven (i.e., productive safety net program) strategies. In addition to this, agro-ecology, yield reduction, wealth, perceived on set of rain, soil infertility, access to markets and credit, institutional participation, land size, dependency ratio, irrigation, and access to early warning systems were found to significantly influence the adoption decision of farmers in the study area. Therefore, policy makers and planners are advised to design techniques to manage climate-induced extreme episodes and produce area specific strategies capable to increase the productivity of cereal crop and livestock.
全球气候变化影响着撒哈拉以南非洲的小农户。为应对不断变化的形势，农民采取了调整生计等适应策略。本研究的目的是评估气候变化对埃塞俄比亚西哈拉雷格地区生计从谷物生产向种植园逐渐转变的影响。通过对273户家庭、8个焦点小组和12名关键信息提供者进行访谈收集数据。使用描述性统计和计量经济模型分析定量数据，而采用带有逐步预处理的内容分析法来分析和报告定性数据。农户表示极端气候对土壤肥力（80%）、作物生产（93%）、畜牧生产（91%）、水资源短缺（92%）以及农民的适应能力（81%）造成了严重影响。结果，约86%的农民更加重视并逐渐将生计从谷物转向作物种植园。除了气候冲击导致生计萎缩外，高市场准入、更好的价格和盈利能力、耐旱和耐水资源短缺能力、在退化土地上生长的能力、适合间作以及一年三到五次收获等优势也被提及，这些吸引农民转向种植生产。为降低对气候变化影响的脆弱性，分别约81%、78%和77%的农民采用了管理策略（如间作和小生意）、技术策略（如梯田和改良作物品种）以及政策驱动策略（即生产性安全网计划）。除此之外，研究发现农业生态、产量下降、财富、对降雨的感知、土壤贫瘠、市场和信贷获取、机构参与、土地规模、抚养比、灌溉以及预警系统的获取等因素对研究区域内农民的采用决策有显著影响。因此，建议政策制定者和规划者设计应对气候引发的极端事件的技术，并制定能够提高谷物作物和畜牧生产力的区域特定策略。
