Khan Nasir Abbas, Shah Ashfaq Ahmad, Chowdhury Ataharul, Wang Libin, Alotaibi Bader Alhafi, Muzamil Muhammad Rafay
Research Center of Risk Management and Emergency Decision-making, School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China.
School of Environmental Design and Rural Development, University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
Heliyon. 2024 Mar 12;10(6):e28003. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28003. eCollection 2024 Mar 30.
Rural and agricultural communities' adaptation to climate change has gained significant attention owing to many countries' vulnerability to climate change risks. A similar trend has been witnessed in South Asia, a highly climate-vulnerable region, where research has grown dramatically considering the agriculture sector's vulnerability to climate-induced disasters. However, little attention has been paid to the adaptation of the livelihoods of rural households. This research, therefore, takes the case of Pakistan to explore livelihood adaptation strategies of rural households to climate change and investigate the factors that expedite or halt the adoption of livelihood diversification strategies. A multistage sampling design is used in this research, where 480 rural households from the Punjab province of Pakistan were selected and interviewed using stratified and random sampling approaches. A multivariate probit (MVP) regression model is employed to analyze the factors affecting households' adoption of livelihood adaptation strategies. The results show that besides adaptation of agronomic operations (agricultural adaptation strategies), rural households in the study area employed a wide range of strategies to adapt their livelihoods to climate change. These strategies include poultry and livestock farming, value addition of farm produce, trading of animals and farm commodities, small businesses (shops, etc.), daily wage labor, horticultural crop farming, and non-farming jobs. The estimates of the MVP model revealed that respondents' education, household size, income, access to a credit facility, access to farm advisory services, and access to climate forecasts have significantly influenced the choice of livelihood adaptation strategies. Based on these findings, this research recommends that the authorities should make efforts to improve farmers' understanding of the adaptation of climate change risks and educate them to adopt multiple livelihood options to improve the resilience of their livelihoods to climate-induced risks. This research has important policy implications for other countries with similar socio-economic features.
由于许多国家易受气候变化风险影响，农村和农业社区对气候变化的适应已受到广泛关注。在南亚这个气候高度脆弱的地区也出现了类似趋势，鉴于农业部门易受气候引发灾害的影响，该地区的相关研究急剧增加。然而，农村家庭生计适应问题却很少受到关注。因此，本研究以巴基斯坦为例，探讨农村家庭应对气候变化的生计适应策略，并调查加速或阻碍生计多样化策略采用的因素。本研究采用多阶段抽样设计，从巴基斯坦旁遮普省选取了480户农村家庭，运用分层随机抽样方法进行访谈。采用多元概率单位（MVP）回归模型分析影响家庭采用生计适应策略的因素。结果表明，除了调整农艺操作（农业适应策略）外，研究区域的农村家庭还采用了多种策略来使生计适应气候变化。这些策略包括家禽和家畜养殖、农产品增值、动物和农产品交易、小生意（商店等）、日薪工作、园艺作物种植和非农业工作。MVP模型估计结果显示，受访者的教育程度、家庭规模、收入、获得信贷便利、获得农场咨询服务以及获得气候预测，都对生计适应策略的选择产生了显著影响。基于这些发现，本研究建议当局应努力提高农民对气候变化风险适应的认识，并教育他们采用多种生计选择，以提高生计对气候引发风险的抵御能力。本研究对其他具有类似社会经济特征的国家具有重要的政策启示意义。
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