Department of Digital Anti-Aging Healthcare (BK21), Inje University Medical Big Data Research Center, Inje University, Gimhae, Republic of Korea.
Medicine (Baltimore). 2024 Oct 11;103(41):e40063. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000040063.
The challenge of developing comprehensive mathematical models for guiding public health initiatives in disease control is varied. Creating complex models is essential to understanding the mechanics of the spread of infectious diseases. We reviewed papers that synthesized various mathematical models and analytical methods applied in epidemiological studies with a focus on infectious diseases such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2, Ebola, Dengue, and Monkeypox. We address past shortcomings, including difficulties in simulating population growth, treatment efficacy and data collection dependability. We recently came up with highly specific and cost-effective diagnostic techniques for early virus detection. This research includes stability analysis, geographical modeling, fractional calculus, new techniques, and validated solvers such as validating solver for parametric ordinary differential equation. The study examines the consequences of different models, equilibrium points, and stability through a thorough qualitative analysis, highlighting the reliability of fractional order derivatives in representing the dynamics of infectious diseases. Unlike standard integer-order approaches, fractional calculus captures the memory and hereditary aspects of disease processes, resulting in a more complex and realistic representation of disease dynamics. This study underlines the impact of public health measures and the critical importance of spatial modeling in detecting transmission zones and informing targeted interventions. The results highlight the need for ongoing financing for research, especially beyond the coronavirus, and address the difficulties in converting analytically complicated findings into practical public health recommendations. Overall, this review emphasizes that further research and innovation in these areas are crucial for addressing ongoing and future public health challenges.
开发用于指导疾病控制公共卫生措施的综合数学模型具有挑战性。创建复杂的模型对于理解传染病传播的机制至关重要。我们回顾了综合各种数学模型和分析方法应用于传染病流行病学研究的论文,重点关注严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 型、埃博拉、登革热和猴痘等传染病。我们解决了过去的缺点,包括模拟人口增长、治疗效果和数据收集可靠性方面的困难。我们最近提出了用于早期病毒检测的高度特异性和具有成本效益的诊断技术。这项研究包括稳定性分析、地理建模、分数微积分、新技术和经过验证的求解器,例如验证参数常微分方程的求解器。通过彻底的定性分析,研究检查了不同模型、平衡点和稳定性的后果,强调了分数阶导数在表示传染病动力学方面的可靠性。与标准整数阶方法不同,分数微积分捕捉疾病过程的记忆和遗传方面,从而更复杂和现实地表示疾病动力学。这项研究强调了公共卫生措施的影响以及空间建模在检测传播区和提供有针对性干预方面的重要性。结果突出了持续为研究提供资金的必要性,特别是超越冠状病毒,并解决了将分析上复杂的发现转化为实际公共卫生建议的困难。总的来说,这篇综述强调了在这些领域进行进一步研究和创新对于应对当前和未来的公共卫生挑战至关重要。