National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
Centre for Social and Early Emotional Development, School of Psychology, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia.
Int Rev Psychiatry. 2024 Jun-Aug;36(4-5):300-307. doi: 10.1080/09540261.2023.2291416. Epub 2023 Dec 11.
Suicide is a major public health concern both globally and in Australia. But in Australia the extent of substantive annual and seasonality trends since 2000 through the first two decades of the 21st Century, by age and sex, has not been formally reported. The current paper sought to identify annual and within-year (seasonality) trajectories in age-sex standardized suicide rates between 2000 and 2020. The annual and within-year (seasonality) trajectories of suicide were estimated from generalised regression analyses of Australia's mortality database. No systematic variation in Australia's suicide rate since 2000 was reported and was consistent between sex and age cohorts. Seasonal variation in rates were identified, with peaks in the new year (January), declines in late Summer/Autumn, stability in Winter, increases in Spring, but with a notable decline in early summer (November-December). These trends were driven men only. Interpretation of current suicide rates need to consider systematic long-term historical context. Despite a historical focus on youth suicide especially, working-aged and very old men have consistently reported higher standardized suicide rates over the first two decades of the 21st Century. Seasonal variation was reported but only reported by men, potentially because across the lifespan, suicide rates for females were a comparatively low incidence event. Particularly after recent successive national and international crises, we emphasise that surveillance and interpretation of current suicide rate requires careful consideration as to the extent any immediate variation may otherwise fall within otherwise normal historical norms.
自杀是一个全球性和澳大利亚国内都非常关注的主要公共卫生问题。但是，自 2000 年以来，在 21 世纪的头二十年中，澳大利亚按年龄和性别划分的年度和季节性趋势的程度尚未正式报告。本文旨在确定 2000 年至 2020 年期间，年龄和性别标准化自杀率的年度和年内（季节性）变化轨迹。通过对澳大利亚死亡率数据库的广义回归分析，估算了自杀的年度和年内（季节性）变化轨迹。自 2000 年以来，澳大利亚的自杀率没有出现系统变化，且在性别和年龄组之间保持一致。确定了季节性变化模式，即新年（1 月）期间自杀率较高，夏末/秋季下降，冬季稳定，春季增加，但初夏（11 月至 12 月）自杀率明显下降。这些趋势仅由男性驱动。解释当前的自杀率需要考虑系统的长期历史背景。尽管历史上特别关注青年自杀问题，但在 21 世纪的头二十年中，工作年龄和非常老年男性的标准化自杀率一直较高。报告了季节性变化，但仅由男性报告，这可能是因为在整个生命周期中，女性的自杀率是一个相对较低的发生率事件。特别是在最近经历了一系列国内外危机后，我们强调，对当前自杀率的监测和解释需要仔细考虑，以确定任何即时变化在多大程度上可能属于正常历史范围。
