Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96744.
Department of Life Sciences, Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Nov 5;121(45):e2407112121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2407112121. Epub 2024 Oct 29.
Coral reefs are among the most sensitive ecosystems affected by ocean warming and acidification, and are predicted to collapse over the next few decades. Reefs are predicted to shift from net accreting calcifier-dominated systems with exceptionally high biodiversity to net eroding algal-dominated systems with dramatically reduced biodiversity. Here, we present a two-year experimental study examining the responses of entire mesocosm coral reef communities to warming (+2 °C), acidification (-0.2 pH units), and combined future ocean (+2 °C, -0.2 pH) treatments. Contrary to modeled projections, we show that under future ocean conditions, these communities shift structure and composition yet persist as novel calcifying ecosystems with high biodiversity. Our results suggest that if climate change is limited to Paris Climate Agreement targets, coral reefs could persist in an altered state rather than collapse.
珊瑚礁是受海洋变暖与酸化影响最敏感的生态系统之一，预计在未来几十年内将会崩溃。预计珊瑚礁将从净积累、以造礁生物为主、生物多样性极高的系统，转变为净侵蚀、以藻类为主、生物多样性急剧减少的系统。在这里，我们进行了一项为期两年的实验研究，以检验整个中观尺度珊瑚礁群落对变暖（升高 2°C）、酸化（降低 0.2 个 pH 单位）以及未来海洋综合（升高 2°C，降低 0.2 pH）处理的反应。与模型预测相反，我们表明，在未来的海洋条件下，这些群落结构和组成发生了变化，但仍然是具有高生物多样性的新型钙化生态系统。我们的研究结果表明，如果气候变化限制在《巴黎气候协定》目标范围内，珊瑚礁可能会以一种改变了的状态而不是崩溃的状态继续存在。
