Cummings K Michael, Roberson Avery, Levy David T, Meza Rafael, Warner Kenneth E, Fong Geoffrey T, Xu Steve Shaowei, Gravely Shannon, Dhungel Bibha, Borland Ron, O'Connor Richard J, Goniewicz Maciej Lukasz, Sweanor David T
Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, South Carolina, USA
Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, South Carolina, USA.
Tob Control. 2024 Oct 29. doi: 10.1136/tc-2024-058734.
This study updates a previous paper that examined trends in the sale of cigarettes and heated tobacco products (HTPs) in Japan between 2011 and part way through 2019. The current study includes complete unit sales data through 2023.
Data on cigarette and HTP sales were obtained from public sources available from the websites and stockholder reports for the Tobacco Institute of Japan, Philip Morris International and Japan Tobacco. We used joinpoint regression using the parametric method to test for trends in both per capita and total sales for the three outcome variables assessed between 2011 and 2023: (1) cigarette sales, (2) HTP sales and (3) combined cigarette and HTP sales. Joinpoint regression identifies changes in trends and estimates the annual per cent change (APC) for each trend segment.
Between 2011 and 2023, per capita and total cigarette sales declined by 52.6% and 52.7%, respectively. From 2011 to 2015, per capita cigarette sales in Japan decreased -1.5% APC; from 2015 to 2018, the decline accelerated to -10.5% APC and continued to fall -7.3% APC between 2018 and 2023. Between 2016 and 2018, per capita HTP sales increased by 149.0% APC, and since 2018, they have increased by 8.1% APC.
While many factors may account for the decreased sale of cigarettes in Japan over the past 12 years, the increased sale of HTPs appears to be a factor.
本研究更新了之前一篇探讨2011年至2019年年中日本卷烟和加热烟草制品（HTP）销售趋势的论文。当前研究纳入了截至2023年的完整单位销售数据。
卷烟和HTP销售数据来自日本烟草协会、菲利普·莫里斯国际公司和日本烟草公司网站及股东报告中的公开信息。我们使用参数化方法的连接点回归，对2011年至2023年评估的三个结果变量的人均和总销售额趋势进行检验：（1）卷烟销售，（2）HTP销售，（3）卷烟和HTP联合销售。连接点回归可识别趋势变化，并估计每个趋势段的年度百分比变化（APC）。
2011年至2023年期间，人均和总卷烟销售额分别下降了52.6%和52.7%。2011年至2015年，日本人均卷烟销售额的APC下降了-1.5%；2015年至2018年，下降加速至-10.5%APC，并在2018年至2023年期间继续下降-7.3%APC。2016年至2018年，人均HTP销售额的APC增长了149.0%，自2018年以来，增长了8.1%APC。
虽然过去12年日本卷烟销量下降可能由多种因素导致，但HTP销量增加似乎是一个因素。
