Papilloud Tsolmongerel, Steiner Albert, Zischg Andreas, Keiler Margreth
University of Bern, Institute of Geography, Hallerstrasse 12, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, Hochschulstrasse 4, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.
Zurich University of Applied Sciences ZHAW, Institute of Data Analysis and Process Design, Technikumstrasse 81, CH-8401 Winterthur, Switzerland.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Dec 15;956:177140. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177140. Epub 2024 Nov 7.
The impact of extreme floods can be significant, affecting humans, the environment and any type of human-built infrastructure. A further consequence of flooding is restricted access to medical facilities, including constraints to access more dedicated emergency medical services (EMS). To date, there has been a lack of investigation into EMS accessibility dynamics during extreme floods. The objective of this study is to gain a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal changes in accessibility-based vulnerability related to EMS during a representative extreme flood event, which was simulated over a period of six days. The study assesses the spatial accessibility of EMS centres to populations located within 15-, 30-, 45-, and 60-minute travel time thresholds in Canton Bern, Switzerland, and applies floating catchment area method. The dynamic aspects of EMS access vulnerability during extreme floods were assessed in two different ways. Firstly, the ratios between accessibility change and accessibility under normal conditions in 1 km grid cells were calculated at hourly moments, t. Subsequently, the resulting values were used to calculate the average vulnerability score. Secondly, percentage changes of affected populations were evaluated for different accessibility classes during the flood event and under all-time high static flood conditions. Varied spatial patterns of accessibility were generally observed with respect to the road network and population distributions in the hilly and mountainous landscape. Extending evaluations to consider temporal dynamics revealed a complex pattern of accessibility gains and losses in different regions of the study area, including those where no direct flood impacts occurred on the road network. The application of a static, all-time high flood condition resulted in an overestimation of accessibility limits to EMS centres. While this overestimation was not considered to be critical, the application of a spatiotemporal accessibility-based vulnerability analysis method to EMS is considered to be more holistic. Insights from this study can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of EMS risk management plans with respect to evolving extreme flood scenarios.
极端洪水的影响可能是巨大的，会对人类、环境以及任何类型的人造基础设施造成影响。洪水的另一个后果是限制了人们进入医疗设施，包括限制获得更专业的紧急医疗服务（EMS）。迄今为止，对于极端洪水期间紧急医疗服务可达性动态的研究还很缺乏。本研究的目的是更深入地了解在一次具有代表性的极端洪水事件期间，与紧急医疗服务相关的基于可达性的脆弱性的时空变化，该事件模拟了六天时间。该研究评估了瑞士伯尔尼州紧急医疗服务中心对距离在15分钟、30分钟、45分钟和60分钟出行时间阈值内的人群的空间可达性，并应用了浮动集水区方法。通过两种不同方式评估了极端洪水期间紧急医疗服务可达性脆弱性的动态方面。首先，在每小时时刻t计算1公里网格单元内可达性变化与正常条件下可达性的比率。随后，用所得值计算平均脆弱性得分。其次，评估了洪水事件期间以及在历史最高静态洪水条件下不同可达性等级受影响人口的百分比变化。通常观察到，相对于丘陵和山区的道路网络及人口分布，可达性呈现出不同的空间模式。将评估扩展到考虑时间动态，揭示了研究区域不同地区可达性增减的复杂模式，包括那些道路网络未受直接洪水影响的地区。应用静态的历史最高洪水条件导致对紧急医疗服务中心可达性限制的高估。虽然这种高估不被认为是关键问题，但将基于时空可达性的脆弱性分析方法应用于紧急医疗服务被认为更具整体性。本研究的见解可用于评估紧急医疗服务风险管理计划在应对不断演变的极端洪水情景方面的有效性。
