Zimmerman Annie, Avendano Mauricio, Lund Crick, Araya Ricardo, Diaz Yadira, Sanchez-Ariza Juliana, Hessel Philipp, Garman Emily, Evans-Lacko Sara
Health Service & Population Research Department, Centre for Global Mental Health, King's College London, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, de Crespigny Park, London SE5 8AF, United Kingdom.
King's College London, Global Health & Social Medicine, 40 Aldwych, London WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom.
Health Policy Plan. 2025 Feb 6;40(2):206-217. doi: 10.1093/heapol/czae102.
Poverty is associated with poorer mental health in early adulthood. Cash transfers (CTs) have been shown to improve child health and education outcomes, but it is unclear whether these effects may translate into better mental health outcomes as children reach young adulthood. Using a quasi-experimental approach that exploits variation across countries in the timing of national CT programme introduction, we examine whether longer exposure to CTs during childhood (0-17 years) reduces depressive symptoms in early adulthood (18-30 years). Based on harmonized data from Colombia, Mexico, and South Africa (N = 14 431), we applied logistic regression models with country and birth-cohort fixed effects to estimate the impact of cumulative years of CT exposure on mental health, educational attainment, and employment outcomes. Our findings indicate that each additional year of CT exposure during childhood is associated with a 4% reduction in the odds of serious depressive symptoms in early adulthood [odds ratio (OR) = 0.96, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.93, 0.98]. We find no consistent effect of years of exposure on completion of secondary school (OR = 1.01, 95% CIs: 0.99, 1.03) and a negative effect on the probability of employment in early adulthood (OR = 0.90, 95% CIs: 0.88, 0.91). These results suggest that longer exposure to CTs may contribute to modest but meaningful reductions in population-level depressive symptoms during early adulthood.
贫困与成年早期较差的心理健康状况相关。现金转移支付（CTs）已被证明能改善儿童的健康和教育成果，但尚不清楚随着儿童步入青年期，这些影响是否会转化为更好的心理健康成果。我们采用一种准实验方法，利用各国在引入国家CT项目时间上的差异，研究儿童期（0至17岁）更长时间接受CTs是否能减少成年早期（18至30岁）的抑郁症状。基于来自哥伦比亚、墨西哥和南非的协调数据（N = 14431），我们应用了具有国家和出生队列固定效应的逻辑回归模型，以估计CT暴露累积年限对心理健康、教育程度和就业成果的影响。我们的研究结果表明，儿童期每多接受一年CTs，成年早期出现严重抑郁症状的几率就会降低4%[优势比（OR）= 0.96，95%置信区间（CIs）：0.93，0.98]。我们发现，暴露年限对完成中学教育没有一致影响（OR = 1.01，95% CIs：0.99，1.03），对成年早期就业概率有负面影响（OR = 0.90，95% CIs：0.88，0.91）。这些结果表明，更长时间接受CTs可能有助于在成年早期适度但显著地减少总体抑郁症状。
