Chowell Gerardo, Skums Pavel
Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA; Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104, Korea.
School of Computing, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA.
Phys Life Rev. 2024 Dec;51:294-327. doi: 10.1016/j.plrev.2024.10.011. Epub 2024 Oct 24.
The integration of viral genomic data into public health surveillance has revolutionized our ability to track and forecast infectious disease dynamics. This review addresses two critical aspects of infectious disease forecasting and monitoring: the methodological workflow for epidemic forecasting and the transformative role of molecular surveillance. We first present a detailed approach for validating epidemic models, emphasizing an iterative workflow that utilizes ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based models to investigate and forecast disease dynamics. We recommend a more structured approach to model validation, systematically addressing key stages such as model calibration, assessment of structural and practical parameter identifiability, and effective uncertainty propagation in forecasts. Furthermore, we underscore the importance of incorporating multiple data streams by applying both simulated and real epidemiological data from the COVID-19 pandemic to produce more reliable forecasts with quantified uncertainty. Additionally, we emphasize the pivotal role of viral genomic data in tracking transmission dynamics and pathogen evolution. By leveraging advanced computational tools such as Bayesian phylogenetics and phylodynamics, researchers can more accurately estimate transmission clusters and reconstruct outbreak histories, thereby improving data-driven modeling and forecasting and informing targeted public health interventions. Finally, we discuss the transformative potential of integrating molecular epidemiology with mathematical modeling to complement and enhance epidemic forecasting and optimize public health strategies.
将病毒基因组数据整合到公共卫生监测中,彻底改变了我们追踪和预测传染病动态的能力。本综述探讨了传染病预测和监测的两个关键方面:疫情预测的方法流程以及分子监测的变革性作用。我们首先介绍一种验证疫情模型的详细方法,强调采用迭代流程,利用基于常微分方程(ODE)的模型来研究和预测疾病动态。我们建议采用更结构化的模型验证方法,系统地处理关键阶段,如模型校准、结构和实际参数可识别性评估以及预测中有效的不确定性传播。此外,我们强调通过应用来自新冠疫情的模拟和实际流行病学数据纳入多个数据流的重要性,以产生具有量化不确定性的更可靠预测。此外,我们强调病毒基因组数据在追踪传播动态和病原体进化方面的关键作用。通过利用贝叶斯系统发育学和系统动力学等先进计算工具,研究人员可以更准确地估计传播集群并重建疫情历史,从而改进数据驱动的建模和预测,并为有针对性的公共卫生干预提供信息。最后,我们讨论将分子流行病学与数学建模相结合以补充和加强疫情预测并优化公共卫生策略的变革潜力。