Song Lichen, Chen Ziyi, Li Yongjie, Ran Lirong, Liao Dongwei, Zhang Yuanyuan, Wang Guangming
School of Clinical Medicine, Dali University, Dali, Yunnan, China.
Medicine Department, School of Clinical Medicine, Dali University, Dali, Yunnan, China.
Front Oncol. 2024 Oct 18;14:1471699. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2024.1471699. eCollection 2024.
Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a malignant tumour with poor prognosis and high mortality, and high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) is considered to be one of its important risk factors.
PC disease burden data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database. Annual percent change (APC), average APC (AAPC), and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were analysed using joinpoint linkpoint regression models to assess the trend of PC burden of disease between 1990 and 2021. An age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on PC burden, and data on PC mortality attributable to HFPG in China from 2022 to 2032 were analysed on the basis of a Bayesian age-period-cohort model projection.
The number of Pc deaths due to HFPG continue to rise in China from 1990 to 2021, with age-standardised mortality (ASMR) and age-standardised disability-adjusted life-year rates with increasing AAPC values of 1.12% (95% CI, 0.73-1.52) and 1.00% (95% CI, 0.63-1.37), respectively. Throughout the study, we found that the overall level of PC disease burden was significantly higher in men than that in women. In age-period-cohort analyses, the age effect of PC showed an increasing and then decreasing trend, the period effect showed an overall increasing trend during the study period, and the cohort effect showed an overall slow decreasing trend. In addition, the BAPC model predicted that ASMR is expected to decline significantly in both men and women from 2022 to 2032.
It was found that PC attributable to HFPG was generally on the rise in China from 1990 to 2021 and has been on the decline in recent years, and projections suggest that the country's future PC disease burden will continue to show a downward trend. Age and period of birth are the main factors affecting the disease burden, especially in men and older age groups. Early prevention, regular screening, and research into the pathogenesis of PC have, therefore, become particularly important.
胰腺癌（PC）是一种预后差、死亡率高的恶性肿瘤，高空腹血糖（HFPG）被认为是其重要危险因素之一。
从《2021年全球疾病负担研究》（GBD 2021）数据库中获取胰腺癌疾病负担数据。使用Joinpoint连接点回归模型分析年度百分比变化（APC）、平均APC（AAPC）和95%置信区间（95%CI），以评估1990年至2021年期间胰腺癌疾病负担的趋势。采用年龄-时期-队列模型估计年龄、时期和队列对胰腺癌负担的独立影响，并基于贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测分析了2022年至2032年中国因HFPG导致的胰腺癌死亡率数据。
1990年至2021年，中国因HFPG导致的胰腺癌死亡人数持续上升，年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化残疾调整生命年率的AAPC值分别以1.12%（95%CI，0.73-1.52）和1.00%（95%CI，0.63-1.37）的速度上升。在整个研究过程中，我们发现胰腺癌疾病负担的总体水平男性显著高于女性。在年龄-时期-队列分析中，胰腺癌的年龄效应呈先上升后下降趋势，时期效应在研究期间总体呈上升趋势，队列效应总体呈缓慢下降趋势。此外，BAPC模型预测，2022年至2032年，男性和女性的ASMR预计将显著下降。
研究发现，1990年至2021年中国因HFPG导致的胰腺癌总体呈上升趋势，近年来呈下降趋势，预测表明该国未来的胰腺癌疾病负担将继续呈下降趋势。年龄和出生时期是影响疾病负担的主要因素，尤其是男性和老年人群体。因此，早期预防、定期筛查以及对胰腺癌发病机制的研究变得尤为重要。
