Cobbinah Benjamin Blandful, Wen Yang, Sarpong Francis Atta
College of Economics, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China.
School of Finance, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Oct 9;10(20):e38761. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e38761. eCollection 2024 Oct 30.
This study leverages the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Exponential Generalized Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) models to conduct a thorough examination of the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on the Ghanaian stock market from 1990 to 2022. Key findings indicate that government spending and tax revenue, as components of fiscal policy, are positively associated with stock returns, contrasting with the negative influence of the industrial production index. On the monetary policy front, interest rates are found to negatively affect stock performance, while exchange rates and the money supply exert positive influences. In the short term, government spending enhances stock returns, although the effects of GDP and the industrial production index are inconsistent, with exchange rates and money supply demonstrating a negative impact. The study underscores the profound sway that policy decisions have on stock market dynamics, underscoring an urgent need for investors and policymakers to closely monitor policy shifts and their market reverberations. A pivotal policy recommendation emerging from this research is the strategic synchronization of fiscal and monetary policies by policymakers to underpin stock market stability and growth. Such harmonization can counteract the adverse effects of policy-induced volatility, cultivating an investment-friendly climate. Investors and policymakers are encouraged to draw upon a spectrum of credible sources, encompassing financial news, governmental releases, and market analyses, to remain abreast of policy evolutions. This research offers precious perspectives on the nexus between economic policies and market movements, offering value for academic inquiry and informing practical decision-making strategies.
本研究利用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型和指数广义自回归条件异方差（EGARCH）模型，对1990年至2022年期间财政和货币政策对加纳股票市场的影响进行了全面考察。主要研究结果表明，作为财政政策组成部分的政府支出和税收收入与股票回报呈正相关，这与工业生产指数的负面影响形成对比。在货币政策方面，研究发现利率对股票表现有负面影响，而汇率和货币供应量则产生积极影响。短期内，政府支出会提高股票回报，尽管国内生产总值（GDP）和工业生产指数的影响并不一致，汇率和货币供应量呈现出负面影响。该研究强调了政策决策对股票市场动态的深远影响，突显了投资者和政策制定者迫切需要密切监测政策转变及其对市场的影响。这项研究得出的一项关键政策建议是，政策制定者应战略性地协调财政和货币政策，以支持股票市场的稳定和增长。这种协调可以抵消政策引发的波动带来的不利影响，营造一个有利于投资的环境。鼓励投资者和政策制定者利用一系列可靠来源，包括财经新闻、政府发布的信息和市场分析，以跟上政策发展动态。本研究为经济政策与市场动态之间的关系提供了宝贵的观点，对学术研究具有参考价值，并为实际决策策略提供了依据。
