Department of Aquatic Ecology, Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland.
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Glob Chang Biol. 2024 Nov;30(11):e17557. doi: 10.1111/gcb.17557.
Climate projections for continental Europe indicate drier summers, increased annual precipitation, and less snowy winters, which are expected to cause shifts in species' distributions. Yet, most regions/countries currently lack comprehensive climate-driven biodiversity projections across taxonomic groups, challenging effective conservation efforts. To address this gap, our study evaluated the potential effects of climate change on the biodiversity of an alpine country of Europe, Switzerland. We used a state-of-the art species distribution modeling approach and species occurrence data that covered the climatic conditions encountered across the full species' ranges to help limiting niche truncation. We quantified the relationship between baseline climate and the spatial distribution of 7291 species from 12 main taxonomic groups and projected future climate suitability for three 30-year periods and two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). Our results indicated important effects of projected climate changes on species' climate suitability, with responses varying by the taxonomic and conservation status group. The percentage of species facing major changes in climate suitability was higher under RCP8.5 (68%) compared to RCP4.5 (66%). By the end of the century, decreases in climate suitability were projected for 3000 species under RCP8.5 and 1758 species under RCP4.5. The most affected groups under RCP8.5 were molluscs, algae, and amphibians, while it was molluscs, birds, and vascular plants under RCP4.5. Spatially, by 2070-2099, we projected an overall decrease in climate suitability for 39% of the cells in the study area under RCP8.5 and 10% under RCP4.5, while projecting an increase for 50% of the cells under RCP8.5 and 73% under RCP4.5. The most consistent geographical shifts were upward, southward, and eastward. We found that the coverage of high climate suitability cells by protected areas was expected to increase. Our models and maps provide guidance for spatial conservation planning by pointing out future climate-suitable areas for biodiversity.
欧洲大陆的气候预测表明夏季将更加干燥，年降水量增加，冬季降雪减少，预计这将导致物种分布发生变化。然而，大多数地区/国家目前缺乏对整个分类群的气候驱动生物多样性预测，这给有效的保护工作带来了挑战。为了解决这一差距，我们的研究评估了气候变化对欧洲阿尔卑斯山国家瑞士生物多样性的潜在影响。我们使用了最先进的物种分布建模方法和物种出现数据，这些数据涵盖了物种整个分布范围内遇到的气候条件，以帮助限制生态位截断。我们量化了基线气候与 12 个主要分类群的 7291 个物种的空间分布之间的关系，并根据两个温室气体浓度情景（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）预测了未来三个 30 年期间的气候适宜性。我们的研究结果表明，预测的气候变化对物种的气候适宜性有重要影响，不同的分类群和保护状况组的反应不同。在 RCP8.5 情景下（68%），面临气候适宜性重大变化的物种比例高于 RCP4.5 情景下（66%）。到本世纪末，预计 RCP8.5 下的气候适宜性将下降 3000 种，而 RCP4.5 下将下降 1758 种。在 RCP8.5 下受影响最大的组是软体动物、藻类和两栖动物，而在 RCP4.5 下受影响最大的是软体动物、鸟类和维管植物。从空间上看，到 2070-2099 年，我们预测 RCP8.5 下研究区域的 39%的单元格的气候适宜性将整体下降，而 RCP4.5 下的 10%的单元格的气候适宜性将增加，而 RCP8.5 下的 50%的单元格和 RCP4.5 下的 73%的单元格的气候适宜性将增加。最一致的地理变化是向上、向南和向东。我们发现，受保护地区高气候适宜性单元格的覆盖范围预计将会增加。我们的模型和地图为空间保护规划提供了指导，指出了未来生物多样性的气候适宜区。
