Programa da Pós-graduação em Ecologia e Evolução, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2013;8(1):e54323. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0054323. Epub 2013 Jan 22.
Spatial conservation prioritization should seek to anticipate climate change impacts on biodiversity and to mitigate these impacts through the development of dynamic conservation plans. Here, we defined spatial priorities for the conservation of amphibians inhabiting the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot that overcome the likely impacts of climate change on the distribution of this imperiled fauna. First, we built ecological niche models (ENMs) for 431 amphibian species both for current time and for the mid-point of a 30-year period spanning 2071-2099 (i.e. 2080). For modeling species' niches, we combined six modeling methods and three different climate models. We also quantified and mapped model uncertainties. Our consensus models forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in central and eastern Atlantic Forest, both for current time and for 2080. Most species had a significant range contraction (up to 72%) and 12% of species were projected to be regionally extinct. Most species would need to disperse because suitable climatic sites will change. Therefore, we identified a network of priority sites for conservation that minimizes the distance a given species would need to disperse because of changes in future habitat suitability (i.e. climate-forced dispersal) as well as uncertainties associated to ENMs. This network also maximized complementary species representation across currently established protected areas. Priority sites already include possible dispersal corridors linking current and future suitable habitats for amphibians. Although we used the a top-ranked Biodiversity Hotspot and amphibians as a case study for illustrating our approach, our study may help developing more effective conservation strategies under climate change, especially when applied at different spatial scales, geographic regions, and taxonomic groups.
空间保护优先化应该旨在预测气候变化对生物多样性的影响，并通过制定动态保护计划来减轻这些影响。在这里，我们为栖息在大西洋森林生物多样性热点地区的两栖动物确定了空间保护重点，以克服气候变化对这一濒危动物分布的可能影响。首先，我们为 431 种两栖动物建立了生态位模型（ENM），分别用于当前时间和跨越 2071-2099 年的 30 年中期（即 2080 年）。对于建模物种的生态位，我们结合了六种建模方法和三种不同的气候模型。我们还量化和绘制了模型不确定性。我们的共识模型预测了范围转移，导致中大西洋森林和东大西洋森林的物种丰富度达到高峰，无论是在当前时间还是在 2080 年。大多数物种的范围收缩幅度很大（高达 72%），预计有 12%的物种将在区域内灭绝。由于气候适宜的地点将会发生变化，大多数物种都需要扩散。因此，我们确定了一个保护优先地点的网络，该网络将最小化由于未来栖息地适宜性变化（即气候驱动的扩散）以及与 ENM 相关的不确定性，某一给定物种需要扩散的距离。该网络还最大限度地提高了当前已建立保护区内互补物种的代表性。优先地点已经包括了可能的扩散走廊，这些走廊将当前和未来适合两栖动物的栖息地连接起来。尽管我们使用了排名最高的生物多样性热点地区和两栖动物作为案例研究来说明我们的方法，但我们的研究可能有助于制定更有效的气候变化下的保护策略，特别是在应用于不同的空间尺度、地理区域和分类群时。
