构建并验证了一种基于外周灌注指数的脓毒症临床预测模型,以预测住院期间和 28 天的死亡风险。

Construction and validation of a clinical prediction model for sepsis using peripheral perfusion index to predict in-hospital and 28-day mortality risk.

机构信息

Department of Critical Care Medicine, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100730, China.

Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Nov 5;14(1):26827. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-78408-0.

Abstract

Sepsis is a clinical syndrome caused by infection, leading to organ dysfunction due to a dysregulated host response. In recent years, its high mortality rate has made it a significant cause of death and disability worldwide. The pathophysiological process of sepsis is related to the body's dysregulated response to infection, with microcirculatory changes serving as early warning signals that guide clinical treatment. The Peripheral Perfusion Index (PI), as an indicator of peripheral microcirculation, can effectively evaluate patient prognosis. This study aims to develop two new prediction models using PI and other common clinical indicators to assess the mortality risk of sepsis patients during hospitalization and within 28 days post-ICU admission. This retrospective study analyzed data from sepsis patients treated in the Intensive Care Unit of Peking Union Medical College Hospital between December 2019 and June 2023, ultimately including 645 patients. LASSO regression and logistic regression analyses were used to select predictive factors from 35 clinical indicators, and two clinical prediction models were constructed to predict in-hospital mortality and 28-day mortality. The models' performance was then evaluated using ROC curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses. The two prediction models performed excellently in distinguishing patient mortality risk. The AUC for the in-hospital mortality prediction model was 0.82 in the training set and 0.73 in the validation set; for the 28-day mortality prediction model, the AUC was 0.79 in the training set and 0.73 in the validation set. The calibration curves closely aligned with the ideal line, indicating consistency between predicted and actual outcomes. Decision curve analysis also demonstrated high net benefits for the clinical utility of both models. The study shows that these two prediction models not only perform excellently statistically but also hold high practical value in clinical applications. The models can help physicians accurately assess the mortality risk of sepsis patients, providing a scientific basis for personalized treatment.

摘要

脓毒症是一种由感染引起的临床综合征,由于宿主反应失调导致器官功能障碍。近年来,其高死亡率使其成为全球范围内导致死亡和残疾的重要原因。脓毒症的病理生理过程与机体对感染的失调反应有关,微循环变化作为指导临床治疗的早期预警信号。外周灌注指数(PI)作为外周微循环的指标,可以有效地评估患者的预后。本研究旨在使用 PI 和其他常见临床指标开发两种新的预测模型,以评估脓毒症患者住院期间和 ICU 入住后 28 天的死亡风险。这项回顾性研究分析了 2019 年 12 月至 2023 年 6 月在北京协和医学院医院重症监护病房接受治疗的脓毒症患者的数据,最终纳入了 645 例患者。使用 LASSO 回归和逻辑回归分析从 35 个临床指标中选择预测因素,并构建了两种临床预测模型来预测住院期间死亡率和 28 天死亡率。然后使用 ROC 曲线、校准曲线和决策曲线分析评估模型的性能。这两个预测模型在区分患者死亡风险方面表现出色。住院死亡率预测模型在训练集中的 AUC 为 0.82,在验证集中为 0.73;28 天死亡率预测模型在训练集中的 AUC 为 0.79,在验证集中为 0.73。校准曲线与理想线紧密吻合,表明预测结果与实际结果之间具有一致性。决策曲线分析也表明这两个模型在临床应用中都具有较高的净效益。该研究表明,这两种预测模型不仅在统计学上表现出色,而且在临床应用中具有很高的实用价值。这些模型可以帮助医生准确评估脓毒症患者的死亡风险,为个性化治疗提供科学依据。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9231/11538300/10cc60353b0b/41598_2024_78408_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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