Co-creation Center for Disaster Resilience, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, 468-1 Aoba, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-0845, Japan.
Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, 468-1 Aoba, Aramaki, Aoba- ku, Sendai, 980-0845, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2024 Nov 6;14(1):26996. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-78583-0.
To control the COVID-19 epidemic, the Japanese government and the local governments have repeatedly implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) throughout 2020-2022. Using Bayesian state-space mediation models, we examined the effect of repeated NPIs on infection spread mitigation, mediated by human mobility changes in each prefecture during three epidemic phases: from April 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021; from March 1, 2021 to December 16, 2021; and from December 17, 2021 to December 31, 2022. In the first phase, controlling downtown populations at nighttime was effective in mitigating the infection spread in almost all prefectures. In the second and third phases, the effect was not clear, especially in metropolitan prefectures. Controlling visitors from the central prefectures of metropolitan areas was effective in mitigating infection spread in the surrounding prefectures during all phases. These results suggest that the local spread of infection can be mitigated by focusing on nighttime human mobility control in downtown areas before the epidemic spreads widely and transmission routes become more diverse, and that the geospatial spread of infection can be prevented by controlling the flows of people from large cities to other areas.
为控制 COVID-19 疫情，2020-2022 年期间，日本政府和地方政府多次实施非药物干预措施（NPIs）。我们使用贝叶斯状态空间中介模型，考察了在三个疫情阶段（2020 年 4 月 1 日至 2021 年 2 月 28 日；2021 年 3 月 1 日至 2021 年 12 月 16 日；2021 年 12 月 17 日至 2022 年 12 月 31 日）中，重复的 NPIs 通过各都道府县人类流动性变化对感染传播缓解的影响。在第一阶段，控制夜间市中心人口对减轻几乎所有都道府县的感染传播是有效的。在第二和第三阶段，效果不明显，特别是在大都市都道府县。在所有阶段，控制来自大都市中心都道府县的游客对减轻周边都道府县的感染传播是有效的。这些结果表明，在疫情广泛传播和传播途径变得更加多样化之前，通过关注夜间市中心地区的人类流动性控制，可以减轻局部感染的传播，通过控制从大城市到其他地区的人流，可以防止感染的地理空间传播。
