Okamoto Shohei
Research Team for Social Participation and Community Health, Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology, Tokyo, Japan.
Institute for Global Health Policy Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
J Transp Health. 2022 Sep;26:101405. doi: 10.1016/j.jth.2022.101405. Epub 2022 Jun 6.
The Japanese government declared a state of emergency (SoE) to control the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). However, the requirements of these SoE were less stringent than those in other nations. It has not been assessed whether soft containment policies were sufficiently effective in the promotion of social distancing or the reduction of human contact.
Mobility changes across different travel destinations, such as, (a) retail and recreation spaces; (b) supermarkets and pharmacies; (c) parks; (d) public transportation; (e) workplaces; and (f) residential areas, were analysed using the Google mobility index to assess social distancing behaviour in all Japanese prefectures between 15 February 2020 and 21 September 2021. The changes were evaluated through the utilisation of an interrupted time-series analysis after adjustment for seasonality and various prefecture-specific fixed-effects, and distinguishment of potential heterogeneity across multiple SoEs and the time that had passed after the declaration.
The mobility index for retail and recreation exhibited an immediate decline of 7.94 percent-points (95%CI: -8.77 to -7.12) after the declaration of the SoE, and a further decline after the initial period (beta: -1.27 95%CI: -1.43 to -1.11). However, it gradually increased by 0.03 percent-points (95%CI: 0.02-0.03). This trend was similar for mobility in other places. Among the four SoEs, the overall decline in human mobility outside the home was the least significant in the third and fourth SoE, which suggests that people were less compliant with social distancing measures during these periods.
Although government responses to the pandemic may aid the controlling of human mobility outside the home, their effectiveness may decrease if these interventions are repeated and enforced for extended periods. A combination of these with other measures (i.e. risk-communication strategies) would enable even mild containment and closure policies to effectively curb the spread of the virus.
日本政府宣布进入紧急状态（SoE）以控制冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的传播。然而，这些紧急状态的要求比其他国家的要求宽松。尚未评估软性限制政策在促进社交距离或减少人际接触方面是否足够有效。
使用谷歌移动指数分析了2020年2月15日至2021年9月21日期间日本所有县不同出行目的地（如（a）零售和娱乐场所；（b）超市和药店；（c）公园；（d）公共交通；（e）工作场所；（f）居民区）的出行变化，以评估社交距离行为。在对季节性和各县特定固定效应进行调整后，通过使用中断时间序列分析对变化进行评估，并区分多个紧急状态之间的潜在异质性以及宣布后经过的时间。
紧急状态宣布后，零售和娱乐的移动指数立即下降了7.94个百分点（95%置信区间：-8.77至-7.12），在初始阶段后进一步下降（β：-1.27，95%置信区间：-1.43至-1.11）。然而，它逐渐上升了0.03个百分点（95%置信区间：0.02 - 0.03）。其他地方的出行情况也呈现类似趋势。在四次紧急状态中，第三次和第四次紧急状态期间家庭外出人员流动的总体下降最不显著，这表明在此期间人们对社交距离措施的遵守程度较低。
尽管政府对疫情的应对措施可能有助于控制家庭外出人员流动，但如果这些干预措施长期重复实施，其有效性可能会降低。将这些措施与其他措施（即风险沟通策略）相结合，即使是温和的限制和封闭政策也能有效遏制病毒传播。
