Liu Yang S, Talarico Fernanda, Metes Dan, Song Yipeng, Wang Mengzhe, Kiyang Lawrence, Wearmouth Dori, Vik Shelly, Wei Yifeng, Zhang Yanbo, Hayward Jake, Ahmed Ghalib, Gaskin Ashley, Greiner Russell, Greenshaw Andrew, Alexander Alex, Janus Magdalena, Cao Bo
Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Ministry of Health, Government of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
PLOS Digit Health. 2024 Nov 7;3(11):e0000620. doi: 10.1371/journal.pdig.0000620. eCollection 2024 Nov.
Signs and symptoms of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) are present at preschool ages and often not identified for early intervention. We aimed to use machine learning to detect ADHD early among kindergarten-aged children using population-level administrative health data and a childhood developmental vulnerability surveillance tool: Early Development Instrument (EDI). The study cohort consists of 23,494 children born in Alberta, Canada, who attended kindergarten in 2016 without a diagnosis of ADHD. In a four-year follow-up period, 1,680 children were later identified with ADHD using case definition. We trained and tested machine learning models to predict ADHD prospectively. The best-performing model using administrative and EDI data could reliably predict ADHD and achieved an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.811 during cross-validation. Key predictive factors included EDI subdomain scores, sex, and socioeconomic status. Our findings suggest that machine learning algorithms that use population-level surveillance data could be a valuable tool for early identification of ADHD.
注意力缺陷多动障碍(ADHD)的体征和症状在学龄前就已出现,但往往未被识别以进行早期干预。我们旨在利用机器学习,通过人群层面的行政健康数据和一种儿童发育脆弱性监测工具:早期发育指标(EDI),在幼儿园儿童中早期检测ADHD。研究队列包括23494名在加拿大艾伯塔省出生、于2016年进入幼儿园且未被诊断为ADHD的儿童。在四年的随访期内,根据病例定义,有1680名儿童后来被确诊为ADHD。我们训练并测试了机器学习模型以前瞻性地预测ADHD。使用行政数据和EDI数据的表现最佳的模型能够可靠地预测ADHD,在交叉验证期间曲线下面积(AUC)达到0.811。关键预测因素包括EDI子领域得分、性别和社会经济地位。我们的研究结果表明,使用人群层面监测数据的机器学习算法可能是早期识别ADHD的宝贵工具。