Prognostic Prediction and Risk Stratification of Transarterial Chemoembolization Combined with Targeted Therapy and Immunotherapy for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Dual-Center Study.

PURPOSE

The combination of transarterial chemoembolization, molecular targeted therapy, and immunotherapy (triple therapy) has shown promising outcomes in the treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to build a prognostic model to identify patients who could benefit from triple therapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective study encompassed 242 patients with HCC who underwent triple therapy from two centers (Training cohort: 158 patients from the Center 1; External validation cohort: 84 patients from the Center 2). Independent predictors of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were identified through Cox regression analyses, and prognostic models based on Cox proportional hazards models were developed. Prognosis was assessed using Kaplan - Meier curves.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, independent predictors of PFS included vascular invasion and the C-reactive protein and alpha-fetoprotein in immunotherapy (CRAFITY) score. Independent predictors of OS were the CRAFITY score, extrahepatic metastasis, and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Prognostic prediction models were constructed based on these variables. The prognostic model for OS demonstrated a C-index of 0.715 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.662-0.768) in the training cohort and 0.701 (95% CI, 0.628-0.774) in the validation cohort. Patients were divided into low- and high-risk categories using the predictive model (P<0.001). These findings were corroborated by the external validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

The developed prognostic model serves as a reliable and convenient tool to predict outcomes in patients with unresectable HCC undergoing triple therapy. It aids clinicians in making informed treatment decisions.