Lopez Hosmay, Lee Sang-Ki, West Robert, Kim Dongmin, Foltz Gregory R, Alaka Ghassan J, Murakami Hiroyuki
Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, Miami, FL, USA.
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.
Sci Adv. 2024 Nov 15;10(46):eadq7856. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adq7856.
Future changes to the year-to-year swings between active and inactive North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) seasons have received little attention, yet may have great societal implications in areas prone to hurricane landfalls. This work investigates past and future changes in North Atlantic TC activity, focusing on interannual variability and evaluating the contributions from anthropogenic forcing. We show that interannual variability of Atlantic TC activity has already increased, evidenced by an increase in the occurrence of both extremely active and inactive TC seasons. TC-resolving general circulation models project a 36% increase in the variance of North Atlantic TC activity, measured by accumulated cyclone energy, by the middle of the 21st century. These changes are the result of increased variability in vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability, in response to enhanced Pacific-to-Atlantic interbasin sea surface temperature variations. Robust anthropogenic-forced intensification in the variability of Atlantic TC activity will continue in the future, with important implications for emergency planning and societal preparedness.
北大西洋热带气旋（TC）活动期与非活动期逐年波动的未来变化很少受到关注，但在容易遭受飓风登陆的地区可能具有重大的社会影响。这项工作研究了北大西洋热带气旋活动的过去和未来变化，重点关注年际变化，并评估人为强迫的贡献。我们表明，大西洋热带气旋活动的年际变化已经增加，这表现为极其活跃和不活跃的热带气旋季节出现次数的增加。热带气旋解析的大气环流模型预测，到21世纪中叶，以累积气旋能量衡量，北大西洋热带气旋活动的方差将增加36%。这些变化是垂直风切变和大气稳定性变化增加的结果，这是对太平洋到大西洋跨洋盆海表温度变化增强的响应。未来，大西洋热带气旋活动变化中人为强迫导致的增强将持续存在，这对应急规划和社会防范具有重要意义。
