School of Sociology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Nov 15;14(1):28176. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-79999-4.
Low fertility is not conducive to healthy population development. The total fertility rate (TFR) is influenced by the education expansion (measured by the proportion of non-student women, NSP), marriage delay (measured by the proportion of married women, MP), and marital fertility rate (MFR). This study decomposes the TFR change into the changes in NSP, MP, and MFR using China's census and 1% population sample survey data. During 1990-2020, the changes in NSP, MP, and MFR contributed - 22%, - 90%, and 12%, respectively, to the changes in TFR. The continuous decline in NSP reduced the TFR, and the intensity continued to increase over time. As the primary negative driving force, the rapid decline in MP also consistently reduced the TFR. The marital fertility rate had a downward effect on the TFR before 2000 and an upward effect after 2000. The effects of NSP, MP, and MFR on the TFR varied with the birth order, age and region (among cities, towns, and villages). In summary, China's TFR has considerably changed in combination with changes in NSP, MP, and MFR. Without effective measures, China's TFR may further decline into the lowest-low fertility trap.
低生育率不利于人口健康发展。总和生育率（TFR）受教育扩张（以非学生女性比例 NSP 衡量）、婚姻推迟（以已婚女性比例 MP 衡量）和已婚生育率（MFR）的影响。本研究利用中国的人口普查和 1%人口抽样调查数据，将 TFR 的变化分解为 NSP、MP 和 MFR 的变化。1990 年至 2020 年间，NSP、MP 和 MFR 的变化分别对 TFR 的变化贡献了-22%、-90%和 12%。NSP 的持续下降降低了 TFR，且其强度随时间推移而增加。作为主要的负驱动力，MP 的快速下降也持续降低了 TFR。在 2000 年之前，已婚生育率对 TFR 有下降作用，而在 2000 年之后则有上升作用。NSP、MP 和 MFR 对 TFR 的影响因出生顺序、年龄和地区（城市、城镇和乡村之间）而异。总之，中国的 TFR 与 NSP、MP 和 MFR 的变化相结合发生了很大变化。如果没有有效措施，中国的 TFR 可能会进一步下降到最低生育率陷阱。
