中国生育率下降：分解分析。

The decline in China's fertility level: a decomposition analysis.

机构信息

Institute for Population and Development Studies, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, People's Republic of China.

Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies, Stanford University, USA.

出版信息

J Biosoc Sci. 2019 Nov;51(6):785-798. doi: 10.1017/S0021932019000038. Epub 2019 Jun 3.

DOI:10.1017/S0021932019000038

PMID:31156077

Abstract

Many factors have contributed to the decline in China's fertility level. Using China's population census data from 1990, 2000 and 2010, the present study investigates the factors causing the decline in China's fertility rate by decomposing changes in two fertility indices: the total fertility rate (TFR) and the net reproduction rate (NRR). The change in the TFR is decomposed into the change in the marital fertility rate (MFR) and the change in the proportion of married women (PMW). Four factors contribute to the change in the NRR. The following are the main findings. A drop in the MFR caused a decrease in the TFR and the NRR between 1989 and 2000. However, the change in MFR increased TFR and NRR between 2000 and 2010. Marriage postponement caused a decline in the fertility level between 1989 and 2000 as well as between 2000 and 2010. The effect of the MFR and marriage postponement varied with age and region and also between urban and rural areas.

摘要

许多因素导致了中国生育率的下降。本研究利用中国 1990 年、2000 年和 2010 年的人口普查数据，通过分解两个生育率指标的变化来研究导致中国生育率下降的因素：总和生育率（TFR）和净生殖率（NRR）。TFR 的变化分解为婚姻生育率（MFR）的变化和已婚妇女人口比例（PMW）的变化。NRR 的变化有四个因素。主要发现如下。1989 年至 2000 年间，MFR 的下降导致了 TFR 和 NRR 的下降。然而，2000 年至 2010 年间，MFR 的变化增加了 TFR 和 NRR。晚婚在 1989 年至 2000 年以及 2000 年至 2010 年期间导致了生育率的下降。MFR 和晚婚的影响因年龄和地区以及城乡地区而异。