Yip Paul S F, Lee Joseph
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong.
Soc Sci Med. 2002 Dec;55(12):2159-69. doi: 10.1016/s0277-9536(01)00359-8.
Hong Kong SAR has experienced an especially rapid fall in fertility over the course of just two decades. The total fertility rate (TFR) fell steadily from the replacement level (i.e. two children per woman) to 0.83 in 1999, which is the lowest in the world. (United Nations Population Division. Replacement migration: is it a solution to declining and ageing populations? United Nations, New York, 2000.) An important question is whether the dramatic decline in the TFR results from a decline in the fertility of married women or from changes in the proportion ever married. Are married women having fewer children, or are there simply fewer married women of prime childbearing age? In this paper, the effects of the changing marital structure on the conventional TFR are identified so that the underlying trends in fertility can be assessed. The study shows that the large decline in the TFR between 1981 and 1999 was in great part distorted by tempo effects, distortions caused by changes in the timing of childbearing and the changing marital structure. Without the distortion induced by the decreasing proportion of women marrying in the prime childbearing years, the decline in fertility was essentially less significant over the 20-year period. A continuation in the downward trend in the proportion married is a strong probability in the light of marriage habits prevalent among the population. This will exert a continuing downward driving force on the TFR. Hong Kong will experience its fertility rate decline further in the short to medium term. The study investigates the effect of long-lasting below-replacement level fertility with a view to gaining some analytical insight into the situation should the population experience such a striking demographic process.
在短短二十年时间里，香港特别行政区的生育率急剧下降。总生育率（TFR）从更替水平（即每名妇女育有两个子女）稳步降至1999年的0.83，这是世界最低水平。（联合国人口司。《替代移民：它是解决人口下降和老龄化问题的办法吗？》，联合国，纽约，2000年。）一个重要问题是，总生育率的急剧下降是已婚妇女生育率下降所致，还是曾经结婚比例变化的结果。是已婚妇女生育的子女减少了，还是仅仅处于主要生育年龄的已婚妇女数量减少了？在本文中，确定了婚姻结构变化对传统总生育率的影响，以便评估生育率的潜在趋势。研究表明，1981年至1999年间总生育率的大幅下降在很大程度上受到节奏效应的扭曲，这种扭曲是由生育时间的变化和婚姻结构的变化引起的。如果没有处于主要生育年龄的妇女结婚比例下降所导致的扭曲，在这20年期间生育率的下降实际上就不会那么显著。鉴于该人群中普遍的婚姻习惯，已婚比例持续下降的可能性很大。这将对总生育率持续施加下行压力。香港在短期至中期内生育率将进一步下降。该研究调查了长期低于更替水平生育率的影响，以期在人口经历如此显著的人口过程时，对这种情况获得一些分析性见解。
