Suter Jocelyne, Devos Isabelle, Matthes Katarina L, Staub Kaspar
Institute of Evolutionary Medicine, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Department of History, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
Epidemiol Infect. 2024 Nov 19;152:e174. doi: 10.1017/S0950268824001651.
Our study aims to enhance future pandemic preparedness by leveraging insights from historical pandemics, focusing on the multidimensional analysis of past outbreaks. In this study, we digitised and analysed for the first time aggregated mortality and morbidity data series from the Russian flu in Switzerland in 1889/1890 and subsequent years to assess its comprehensive impact. The strongest effects were observed in January 1890, showing significant monthly excess mortality from all causes compared to the preceding five years (58.9%, 95% CI 36.6 to 81.0). Even though the whole of Switzerland was affected, the impact varied regionally due to ecological variations. Deaths from other conditions such as tuberculosis and heart disease also increased during this period. A significant drop in birth occurred 9 months later, in the autumn of 1890. Morbidity estimates by physicians suggest that around 60% of the Swiss population fell ill, with regional discrepancies and earlier outbreaks among postal workers (1-2 weeks earlier than the rest of the population). A subsequent spike in all-cause excess and influenza mortality was recorded in January 1894 but more localized than in 1890. Our findings show no cross-protection between the 1890 and 1894 outbreaks.
我们的研究旨在通过借鉴历史大流行的见解来加强未来的大流行防范,重点是对过去疫情进行多维度分析。在本研究中,我们首次对1889/1890年及随后几年瑞士俄罗斯流感的汇总死亡率和发病率数据系列进行数字化处理和分析,以评估其全面影响。1890年1月观察到的影响最为强烈,与前五年相比,所有原因导致的月度超额死亡率显著升高(58.9%,95%置信区间36.6至81.0)。尽管瑞士全境都受到了影响,但由于生态差异,影响在地区上有所不同。在此期间,结核病和心脏病等其他疾病导致的死亡人数也有所增加。9个月后的1890年秋季,出生率显著下降。医生估计的发病率表明,约60%的瑞士人口患病,存在地区差异,邮政工作人员发病较早(比其他人群早1-2周)。1894年1月记录到所有原因导致的超额死亡率和流感死亡率随后出现飙升,但比1890年更具局部性。我们的研究结果表明,1890年和1894年的疫情之间没有交叉保护作用。