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一种用于微塑料拖曳力和沉降速度的新建模方法。

A new modeling approach for microplastic drag and settling velocity.

作者信息

Li Shicheng, Ma Xin

机构信息

Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 10044, Stockholm, Sweden.

College of Water Conservancy, Yunnan Agricultural University, 650201, Kunming, China.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2024 Dec;372:123375. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123375. Epub 2024 Nov 24.

DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123375
PMID:39579568
Abstract

Understanding microplastics' (MPs') transport and settling behaviors in aquatic environments is crucial for devising effective management strategies. This study contributes a novel modeling framework to develop accurate and interpretable drag and velocity models for MPs using machine learning techniques. It achieves faster model creation and improved accuracy than traditional methods like theoretical analysis and data fitting. The framework demonstrates high predictive accuracy across different MP types (1D, 2D, 3D, and mixed), with a coefficient of determination CD = 0.86-0.95 for the drag models and CD = 0.92-0.95 for the velocity models. Compared with best-performing empirical approaches, the new drag models exhibit an average reduction in root mean square error (RMSE) by 59% and mean absolute error (MAE) by 62%. Similarly, the velocity models show a mean decrease in RMSE and MAE by 27% and 25%, respectively. Moreover, the framework outperforms commonly used symbolic regression methods, reducing errors by 18%-27%. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the relative density difference and the dimensionless diameter are essential for predicting the settling of all MP types, while the effective shape parameters vary across different MP categories. By providing accurate predictions of MPs' settling dynamics, this study offers insights for developing targeted mitigation strategies to reduce MPs' environmental impacts.

摘要

了解微塑料(MPs)在水生环境中的传输和沉降行为对于制定有效的管理策略至关重要。本研究贡献了一个新颖的建模框架,利用机器学习技术为微塑料开发准确且可解释的阻力和速度模型。与理论分析和数据拟合等传统方法相比,它实现了更快的模型创建并提高了准确性。该框架在不同类型的微塑料(一维、二维、三维和混合)上均展现出较高的预测准确性,阻力模型的决定系数CD = 0.86 - 0.95,速度模型的CD = 0.92 - 0.95。与表现最佳的经验方法相比,新的阻力模型的均方根误差(RMSE)平均降低了59%,平均绝对误差(MAE)降低了62%。同样,速度模型的RMSE和MAE分别平均降低了27%和25%。此外,该框架优于常用的符号回归方法,误差降低了18% - 27%。敏感性分析表明,相对密度差和无量纲直径对于预测所有类型微塑料的沉降至关重要,而有效形状参数在不同的微塑料类别中有所不同。通过提供对微塑料沉降动态的准确预测,本研究为制定有针对性的缓解策略以减少微塑料的环境影响提供了见解。

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