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1978-2022 年台湾地区结核病死亡率的 Joinpoint 回归和年龄-时期-队列分析趋势及年变化百分比。

Trends and annual percentage changes in tuberculosis mortality estimated by Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analyses, Taiwan, 1978-2022.

机构信息

Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Tzu Chi University, 701, Sec. 3, Chung-Yang Rd., Hualien, 970374, Taiwan R.O.C..

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Nov 24;14(1):29101. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-80343-z.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-024-80343-z
PMID:39582013
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11586426/
Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) was a public health problem in the past and remained a threat worldwide, including in Taiwan. We aimed to estimate annual percentage changes (APC) in TB mortality and the age-period-cohort effects on TB mortality. Taiwan TB mortality data from 1978 to 2022 was used to estimate the APC through the Joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort models. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) reduced from 23.46 to 3.02 and 41.70 to 1.59 per 100,000 population in males, while 8.84 to 1.09 and 14.58 to 0.45, respectively, in females. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the crude rates still significantly declined in males from 2020 to 2022 but not in females. APC in ASMR significantly decreased in males and females (-7.17% and -7.64%), while after adjusted age-period-cohort effects, the estimated APC were -8.83% and -9.77%. Age-period-cohort effects were observed, with the highest peaks in the youngest (aged 0-4) and the period 1978-1982 in both sexes and peaks in the male cohort 1898-1902 and female cohort 1903- 1907. TB mortality in Taiwan has declined in all ages, sexes, periods, and cohorts. However, the COVID-19 pandemic stopped TB mortality from decreasing.

摘要

结核病（TB）过去是一个公共卫生问题，在全球范围内仍然是一个威胁，包括在台湾。我们旨在估计结核病死亡率的年百分比变化（APC）以及年龄-时期-队列效应对结核病死亡率的影响。我们使用了 1978 年至 2022 年台湾的结核病死亡率数据，通过 Joinpoint 回归分析和年龄-时期-队列模型来估计 APC。男性的粗死亡率和年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）从 23.46 降至 3.02 和从 41.70 降至 1.59/100,000 人口，而女性则从 8.84 降至 1.09 和从 14.58 降至 0.45/100,000 人口。在 COVID-19 大流行期间，男性的粗死亡率在 2020 年至 2022 年仍显著下降，但女性没有。男性和女性的 ASMR 的 APC 均显著下降（-7.17%和-7.64%），而在调整年龄-时期-队列效应后，估计的 APC 分别为-8.83%和-9.77%。观察到了年龄-时期-队列效应，在两性中，最年轻（0-4 岁）和时期 1978-1982 都出现了高峰，而男性队列 1898-1902 和女性队列 1903-1907 则出现了高峰。台湾的结核病死亡率在所有年龄、性别、时期和队列中都有所下降。然而，COVID-19 大流行阻止了结核病死亡率的下降。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6438/11586426/a331d71a9db0/41598_2024_80343_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6438/11586426/32c1d89c29b7/41598_2024_80343_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6438/11586426/4b6a1e48259a/41598_2024_80343_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6438/11586426/21c8b13c093c/41598_2024_80343_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6438/11586426/a331d71a9db0/41598_2024_80343_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6438/11586426/32c1d89c29b7/41598_2024_80343_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6438/11586426/4b6a1e48259a/41598_2024_80343_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6438/11586426/21c8b13c093c/41598_2024_80343_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6438/11586426/a331d71a9db0/41598_2024_80343_Fig4_HTML.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Trends and annual percentage changes in tuberculosis mortality estimated by Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analyses, Taiwan, 1978-2022.

Sci Rep. 2024-11-24

[2]
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BMC Pulm Med. 2021-11-16

[3]
Age-period-cohort analysis and prediction of tuberculosis trends in China-based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data.

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[4]
Analysis of the epidemiological trends of Tuberculosis in China from 2000 to 2021 based on the joinpoint regression model.

BMC Infect Dis. 2024-10-30

[5]
Trends in tuberculosis mortality among older adults in China, 2004-2021: a Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis.

Front Public Health. 2025-1-6

[6]
Epidemiology and disease burden of tuberculosis in south of Tunisia over a 22-year period: Current trends and future projections.

PLoS One. 2019-7-24

[7]
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Lancet. 2024-5-18

[8]
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[9]
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BMC Public Health. 2024-9-16

[10]
Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis mortality in Taiwan: 1961 to 1990.

J Formos Med Assoc. 1994-8

本文引用的文献

[1]
Age-period-cohort analysis on tuberculosis cases in Japan, 1953-2022.

Int J Mycobacteriol. 2023

[2]
Drivers of sex differences in the South African adult tuberculosis incidence and mortality trends, 1990-2019.

Sci Rep. 2023-6-10

[3]
Cohort study of the mortality among patients in New York City with tuberculosis and COVID-19, March 2020 to June 2022.

PLOS Glob Public Health. 2023-4-26

[4]
Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019.

EClinicalMedicine. 2022-9-17

[5]
Infant BCG vaccination and risk of pulmonary and extrapulmonary tuberculosis throughout the life course: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

Lancet Glob Health. 2022-9

[6]
Genetic and hormonal mechanisms underlying sex-specific immune responses in tuberculosis.

Trends Immunol. 2022-8

[7]
Different impacts of cancer types on cancer screening during COVID-19 pandemic in Taiwan.

J Formos Med Assoc. 2022-10

[8]
Sociodemographic Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Mortality Among Persons Diagnosed With Tuberculosis and COVID-19 in Close Succession in California, 2020.

JAMA Netw Open. 2021-12-1

[9]
Association of sex with clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients: A retrospective analysis of 1190 cases.

Respir Med. 2020-9-28

[10]
Age-Period-Cohort Analyses of Tuberculosis Incidence Rates by Nativity, United States, 1996-2016.

Am J Public Health. 2018-11

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