Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Annenberg School of Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Dec 3;121(49):e2414689121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2414689121. Epub 2024 Nov 26.
The attempted assassination of Donald Trump led to widespread concern that the event would escalate political violence between U.S. partisans. While some politicians pleaded for Americans to unite against political violence and "turn down the temperature" on partisan hostility, others continued to engage in inflammatory rhetoric and blame. Using a national survey in the field at the time of the assassination attempt, we take the temperature of America's partisans before and after the event. We exploit the natural variation induced by the assassination attempt and large daily survey coverage (preattempt: 3,572; postattempt: 703; and 690 in a panel) in the days before and after the attempt to estimate the causal effects of extreme partisan violence on measures of partisan animosity and identity. Using panel and cross-sectional interrupted time series analysis, we find no evidence that the event increased tensions or support for retaliatory violence in the immediate aftermath. On the contrary, Republicans, including MAGA Republicans, became significantly less supportive of partisan violence against Democrats. Republicans also did not become more hostile toward Democrats; instead, their attachment to their own party significantly increased. Democrats experienced no change in attitudes. While nearly a third of Americans have no positive feelings toward the other party, and a supermajority have negative feelings, this animosity was not exacerbated by an extreme but salient instance of partisan violence. Despite the ills of modern political conflict, extreme partisan violence did not cause an immediate upsurge in support for violence.
唐纳德·特朗普遇刺未遂事件引发了广泛的担忧，即该事件将加剧美国党派之间的政治暴力。一些政客呼吁美国人团结起来反对政治暴力，“降低党派敌意的温度”，而另一些人则继续发表煽动性言论和指责。利用刺杀未遂事件发生时的实地全国性调查，我们在事件发生前后测量了美国党派人士的态度。我们利用刺杀未遂事件引发的自然变化以及每天大量的调查覆盖范围（事前：3572 人；事后：703 人；在事件发生前和后几天的小组中：690 人）来估计极端党派暴力对党派敌意和身份衡量标准的因果影响。使用面板和横截面中断时间序列分析，我们没有发现证据表明该事件在事件发生后立即加剧了紧张局势或对报复性暴力的支持。相反，共和党人，包括 MAGA 共和党人，对针对民主党的党派暴力的支持明显减少。共和党人也没有对民主党人变得更加敌对；相反，他们对自己党派的忠诚度显著提高。民主党人对态度没有变化。虽然近三分之一的美国人对对方党派没有好感，而且绝大多数人持负面看法，但这种敌意并没有因党派暴力的极端而明显的例子而加剧。尽管现代政治冲突存在种种弊端，但极端党派暴力并没有立即引发对暴力的支持浪潮。
