Helmholtz Zentrum Hereon, 21501, Geesthacht, Germany.
Kiel University, 24118, Kiel, Germany.
Nat Commun. 2024 Nov 26;15(1):10248. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-54474-w.
Human population dynamics and their drivers are not well understood, especially over the long term and on large scales. Here, we estimate demographic growth trajectories from 9 to 3 ka BP across the entire globe by employing summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates. Our reconstruction reveals multicentennial growth cycles on all six inhabited continents, which exhibited matching dominant frequencies and phase relations. These growth oscillations were often also synchronised with multicentennial variations in solar activity. The growth cycle for Europe, reconstructed based on >91,000 radiocarbon dates, was backed by archaeology-derived settlement data and showed only a weak correlation with mean climate states, but a strong correlation with the stability of these states. We therefore suggest a link between multicentennial variations in solar activity and climate stability. This stability provided more favourable conditions for human subsistence success, and seems to have induced synchrony between regional growth cycles worldwide.
人类人口动态及其驱动因素还没有得到很好的理解,尤其是从长期和大规模来看。在这里,我们通过使用放射性碳日期的总和概率分布来估计整个全球范围内从 9 到 3 ka BP 的人口增长轨迹。我们的重建揭示了所有六个有人居住的大陆上的百年增长周期,这些周期表现出匹配的主导频率和相位关系。这些增长波动也经常与太阳活动的百年变化同步。根据 91,000 多个放射性碳日期重建的欧洲增长周期,得到了考古学衍生的定居点数据的支持,与平均气候状态仅显示出微弱的相关性,但与这些状态的稳定性具有很强的相关性。因此,我们认为太阳活动的百年变化与气候稳定性之间存在联系。这种稳定性为人类的生存成功提供了更有利的条件,并且似乎在全球范围内诱导了区域增长周期之间的同步性。