Jordan Katherine H, Dennin Luke R, Adams Peter J, Jaramillo Paulina, Muller Nicholas Z
Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave., Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, United States.
Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave., Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2024 Dec 10;58(49):21510-21522. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.4c03719. Epub 2024 Nov 26.
Energy system optimization models facilitate analyses on a national or regional scale. However, understanding the impacts of climate policy on specific populations requires a much higher spatial resolution. Here, we link an energy system optimization model to an integrated assessment model via an emission downscaling algorithm, translating air pollution emissions from nine U.S. regions to U.S. counties. We simulate the impacts of six distinct policy scenarios, including a current policy and a 2050 net-zero target, on NO, SO, and PM emissions from on-road transportation and electricity generation. We compare different policies based on their ability to reduce emission exposure and exposure disparity across racial groups, allowing decision-makers to assess the air pollution impacts of various policy instruments more holistically. Modeled policies include a clean electricity standard, an on-road ICE vehicle ban, a carbon tax, and a scenario that reaches net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. While exposure and disparities decrease in all scenarios, our results reveal persistent disparities until at least 2040, particularly for Black non-Hispanic Americans. Our estimates of avoided deaths due to air pollution emphasize the importance of policy timing, showing that thousands of lives can be saved by taking action in the near-term.
能源系统优化模型有助于在国家或区域层面进行分析。然而，要了解气候政策对特定人群的影响，需要更高的空间分辨率。在此，我们通过排放降尺度算法将能源系统优化模型与综合评估模型相连接，把美国九个地区的空气污染排放数据转换为美国各县的数据。我们模拟了六种不同政策情景的影响，包括当前政策和2050年净零目标情景，这些情景对公路运输和发电产生的氮氧化物、硫氧化物和颗粒物排放的影响。我们根据不同政策减少排放暴露以及不同种族群体之间暴露差异的能力进行比较，使决策者能够更全面地评估各种政策工具对空气污染的影响。模拟的政策包括清洁电力标准、公路内燃机车辆禁令、碳税以及到2050年实现温室气体净零排放的情景。虽然在所有情景中排放暴露和差异都有所减少，但我们的结果显示，至少到2040年仍存在持续的差异，尤其是对于非西班牙裔黑人。我们对空气污染导致的死亡避免数量的估计强调了政策时机的重要性，表明近期采取行动可挽救数千人的生命。
