Shah Richa, Battisti Nicolò Matteo Luca, Brain Etienne, Gnangnon Freddy H R, Kanesvaran Ravindran, Mohile Supriya, Noronha Vanita, Puts Martine, Soto-Perez-de-Celis Enrique, Pilleron Sophie
Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 25 Avenue Tony Garnier CS 90627, Lyon 69366, France.
Department of Medicine, The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK and International Society of Geriatric Oncology, Geneva, Switzerland.
Cancer Epidemiol. 2025 Apr;95:102716. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2024.102716. Epub 2024 Nov 26.
The global population aged 80 years or older is expected to triple by 2050, leading to an increased cancer burden in the oldest population. This study describes the estimated cancer incidence and mortality in 2022 and projections for 2050 in the oldest old, analyzed globally and by world regions and World Bank income levels, for all sexes combined, as well as separately for males and females.
Using GLOBOCAN 2022 estimates, we reported the estimated number of new cancer cases (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers), deaths, and truncated age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) (per 100,000 individuals aged 80 years or older). We also presented the top five cancers by cases and deaths. Additionally, we projected the number of new cancer cases and deaths for each region in 2050, assuming no change in cancer incidence and death rates.
In 2022, an estimated 2.6 million new cancer cases (14 % of all cancer cases) and 2.1 million cancer deaths (22 % of all cancer deaths) occurred in the oldest old, with regional variations. Globally, lung, colorectal, and prostate cancers were the most common cancers diagnosed and leading causes of cancer death. ASIR ranged from 987 in Africa to 2044 per 100,000 in Northern America while ASMR ranged from 981 in Africa to 1769 per 100,000 in Oceania. In 2050, an estimated 7.4 million new cancer cases and 6 million cancer deaths are expected. The greatest increases are anticipated in China, India, and Africa, with increases exceeding 200 % compared to 2022 estimates.
The growing cancer burden among the oldest old poses significant challenges to global healthcare systems, necessitating resource-tailored adaptations. These findings call for the inclusion of the oldest old in the development and implementation of cancer control policies and a better representation in cancer research.
预计到2050年，全球80岁及以上的老年人口数量将增至三倍，这将导致最年长人群的癌症负担加重。本研究描述了2022年80岁及以上老年人的癌症发病率和死亡率估计情况，以及对2050年的预测，分析范围覆盖全球、世界各区域和世界银行划分的收入水平，涵盖所有性别，以及男性和女性的单独情况。
使用全球癌症数据库（GLOBOCAN）2022年的估计数据，我们报告了新癌症病例（不包括非黑色素瘤皮肤癌）、死亡人数的估计数量，以及截断年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和死亡率（ASMR）（每10万名80岁及以上个体）。我们还列出了病例数和死亡人数最多的五种癌症。此外，我们假设癌症发病率和死亡率不变，预测了2050年每个区域的新癌症病例数和死亡人数。
2022年，80岁及以上老年人估计有260万例新癌症病例（占所有癌症病例的14%）和210万例癌症死亡（占所有癌症死亡的22%），存在区域差异。在全球范围内，肺癌、结直肠癌和前列腺癌是最常见的诊断癌症和癌症死亡的主要原因。ASIR范围从非洲的每10万人987例到北美洲的每10万人2044例，而ASMR范围从非洲的每10万人981例到大洋洲的每10万人1769例。预计到2050年，新癌症病例数将达740万例，癌症死亡人数将达600万例。中国、印度和非洲的增长幅度最大，与2022年的估计相比，增幅超过200%。
最年长人群中不断增加的癌症负担给全球医疗系统带来了重大挑战，需要根据资源进行调整。这些发现呼吁将最年长人群纳入癌症控制政策的制定和实施过程，并在癌症研究中得到更好的体现。
