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2018 年全球最老年人群癌症发病率的估计数及 2050 年预测。

Estimated global cancer incidence in the oldest adults in 2018 and projections to 2050.

机构信息

Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.

Department of Geriatrics, Cancer Care in the Elderly Clinic, Instituto Nacional de Ciencas Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico.

出版信息

Int J Cancer. 2021 Feb 1;148(3):601-608. doi: 10.1002/ijc.33232. Epub 2020 Aug 17.

Abstract

Using GLOBOCAN estimates, we describe the estimated cancer incidence among adults aged 80 years or older at the regional and global level in 2018, reporting the number of new cancer cases, and the truncated age-standardised incidence rates (per 100 000) for all cancer sites combined for this age group. We also presented the five most frequent cancers diagnosed by region and globally among females and males aged 65 to 79 years old and 80 years or older. We, finally, estimated the number of new cancer cases in 2050, the proportion of cases aged 80 years or older, and the proportional increase between 2018 and 2050 by region, by applying population projections to the 2018 incidence rates. In 2018, an estimated 2.3 million new cancer cases (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) were aged 80 years or older worldwide (13% of all cancer cases), with large variation in the profiles at regional levels. Globally, breast, lung and colon were the most common cancer sites diagnosed in the oldest females, while prostate, lung and colon were most frequent in the oldest males. In 2050, an estimated 6.9 million new cancers will be diagnosed in adults aged 80 years or older worldwide (20.5% of all cancer cases). Due to the complexity of cancer management in the oldest patients, the expected increase will challenge healthcare systems worldwide, posing a tangible economic and social impact on families and society. It is time to consider the oldest population in cancer control policies.

摘要

利用 GLOBOCAN 估计数,我们描述了 2018 年 80 岁及以上成年人在区域和全球的癌症发病率,报告了新癌症病例数,并报告了该年龄组所有癌症部位的截短年龄标准化发病率(每 10 万人)。我们还按地区和全球分别报告了 65 至 79 岁和 80 岁及以上的女性和男性中最常见的五种癌症。最后,我们根据 2018 年的发病率,应用人口预测对 2050 年的新癌症病例数、80 岁及以上病例的比例以及 2018 年至 2050 年期间的比例增长进行了估计。2018 年,全球估计有 230 万例(不包括非黑色素瘤皮肤癌)新癌症病例(占所有癌症病例的 13%),各地区的发病情况差异很大。在全球范围内,乳腺癌、肺癌和结肠癌是最常见的老年女性癌症,而前列腺癌、肺癌和结肠癌是最常见的老年男性癌症。到 2050 年,全球估计有 690 万例新癌症将被诊断为 80 岁及以上的成年人(占所有癌症病例的 20.5%)。由于老年患者癌症管理的复杂性,预计会增加对全球医疗体系的挑战,给家庭和社会带来切实的经济和社会影响。现在是时候在癌症控制政策中考虑最年长的人群了。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e29d/7754149/961c868a70d9/IJC-148-601-g001.jpg

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