Huxley Paul J, Johnson Leah R, Cator Lauren J, Pawar Samraat
Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.
Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot, UK.
Res Sq. 2024 Nov 14:rs.3.rs-5361425. doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5361425/v1.
The temperature dependence of population fitness is key to predicting ectotherm responses to climatic change. Discrete-time matrix projection models (MPMs) are used to calculate because they capture variation in its underlying life-history trait values and time delays inherent in those traits. However, MPM calculations can be laborious and do not capture time's continuous nature. More complex approaches for calculating temperature-dependent may be more accurate but they are notoriously difficult to parameterise. Ordinary differential equation-based models (ODEMs) offer a relatively tractable alternative of intermediate complexity, but it is unknown whether they broadly agree with MPM calculations when environmental variation is introduced. Here we investigate differences in the predicted temperature dependence of obtained from an ODEM with those calculated from MPMs using temperature- and resource dependent life-history trait data for the disease vector, . We show that the level of agreement between discrete- and continuous-time representations of temperature-dependent can vary with resource availability and is extremely sensitive to juvenile survival characterisations. This finding suggests that ODEMs can only provide comparable predictions to standard methods when resources are not limiting, questioning the ability of existing mathematical models to reliably predict arthropod responses to environmental variation.
种群适合度对温度的依赖性是预测变温动物对气候变化响应的关键。离散时间矩阵投影模型（MPMs）被用于计算，因为它们能够捕捉其潜在生活史特征值的变化以及这些特征中固有的时间延迟。然而，MPM计算可能很繁琐，并且无法捕捉时间的连续性质。计算温度依赖性的更复杂方法可能更准确，但众所周知，它们的参数化非常困难。基于常微分方程的模型（ODEMs）提供了一种复杂度适中且相对易于处理的替代方法，但当引入环境变化时，它们是否与MPM计算结果大致一致尚不清楚。在这里，我们使用病媒的温度和资源依赖性生活史特征数据，研究从一个ODEM获得的预测温度依赖性与从MPMs计算得到的结果之间的差异。我们表明，温度依赖性的离散时间和连续时间表示之间的一致程度会随资源可用性而变化，并且对幼体存活率的表征极为敏感。这一发现表明，只有在资源不受限制时，ODEMs才能提供与标准方法可比的预测结果，这对现有数学模型可靠预测节肢动物对环境变化响应的能力提出了质疑。
