Centre for Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.
Global Health and Tropical Medicine, GHTM, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, IHMT, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.
Sci Rep. 2021 May 10;11(1):9916. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-89096-5.
The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the species for this region, often with differing results. We provide the first joint analysis of these predictions, to identify consensus hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as areas with high uncertainty. The analysis focused on current and future climate conditions and was carried out for the whole of Europe and for 65 major urban areas. High consensus on current suitability was found for the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the coastline between the western Balkans and Greece. Most models also agree on a substantial future expansion of suitable areas into northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of urban areas are expected to become suitable in the future, in contrast with ~ 49% nowadays. Our findings show that previous research is congruent in identifying wide suitable areas for Aedes albopictus across Europe and in the need to effectively account for climate change in managing and preventing its future spread.
亚洲虎蚊（Aedes albopictus）是登革热、寨卡病毒和其他疾病的传播媒介，于 20 世纪 70 年代传入欧洲，此后其分布范围仍在不断扩大。出于对公共卫生的担忧，有几项研究对该地区该物种的当前和未来分布进行了预测，结果往往各不相同。我们对这些预测进行了首次联合分析，以确定高适宜性和低适宜性的热点区域以及不确定性较高的区域。该分析侧重于当前和未来的气候条件，涵盖整个欧洲和 65 个主要城市地区。研究发现，伊比利亚半岛西北部、法国南部、意大利和西巴尔干半岛与希腊之间的海岸线地区目前的适宜性高度一致。大多数模型还预测未来适宜区域将大幅扩展到北欧和东欧。未来，预计约 83%的城市地区将变得适宜，而目前这一比例约为 49%。研究结果表明，先前的研究在确定欧洲和管理和预防其未来传播时需要有效考虑气候变化的情况下，一致认为亚洲虎蚊在欧洲有广泛的适宜区域。
