Huxley Paul J, Murray Kris A, Pawar Samraat, Cator Lauren J
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
Proc Biol Sci. 2021 Apr 28;288(1949):20203217. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2020.3217.
Laboratory-derived temperature dependencies of life-history traits are increasingly being used to make mechanistic predictions for how climatic warming will affect vector-borne disease dynamics, partially by affecting abundance dynamics of the vector population. These temperature-trait relationships are typically estimated from juvenile populations reared on optimal resource supply, even though natural populations of vectors are expected to experience variation in resource supply, including intermittent resource limitation. Using laboratory experiments on the mosquito , a principal arbovirus vector, combined with stage-structured population modelling, we show that low-resource supply in the juvenile life stages significantly depresses the vector's maximal population growth rate across the entire temperature range (22-32°C) and causes it to peak at a lower temperature than at high-resource supply. This effect is primarily driven by an increase in juvenile mortality and development time, combined with a decrease in adult size with temperature at low-resource supply. Our study suggests that most projections of temperature-dependent vector abundance and disease transmission are likely to be biased because they are based on traits measured under optimal resource supply. Our results provide compelling evidence for future studies to consider resource supply when predicting the effects of climate and habitat change on vector-borne disease transmission, disease vectors and other arthropods.
实验室得出的生活史特征的温度依赖性越来越多地被用于对气候变暖将如何影响媒介传播疾病动态进行机制预测,部分原因是通过影响媒介种群的数量动态。这些温度与特征的关系通常是根据在最佳资源供应条件下饲养的幼体种群估算得出的,尽管预计媒介的自然种群会经历资源供应的变化,包括间歇性的资源限制。通过对主要虫媒病毒媒介蚊子进行实验室实验,并结合阶段结构种群建模,我们发现幼体生命阶段的低资源供应在整个温度范围(22 - 32°C)内显著降低了媒介的最大种群增长率,并使其在比高资源供应时更低的温度下达到峰值。这种影响主要是由幼体死亡率和发育时间增加,以及在低资源供应下成体大小随温度降低共同导致的。我们的研究表明,大多数关于温度依赖性媒介数量和疾病传播的预测可能存在偏差,因为它们是基于在最佳资源供应条件下测量的特征得出的。我们的结果为未来研究在预测气候和栖息地变化对媒介传播疾病传播、病媒及其他节肢动物的影响时考虑资源供应提供了有力证据。