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[2010 - 2019年巴西外部原因死亡率估计:垃圾原因重新分配方法]

[Estimates of mortality from external causes in Brazil, 2010-2019: methodology for redistribution of garbage causes].

作者信息

Soares Filho Adauto Martins, Teixeira Renato Azeredo, Dantas Junior Ademar Barbosa, Souza Juliana Bottoni de, Montenegro Marli de Mesquita Silva, Vasconcelos Ana Maria Nogales, Souza Maria de Fatima Marinho de, França Elisabeth Barboza, Malta Deborah Carvalho

机构信息

Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde e Ambiente, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Brasil.

Programa de Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva, Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, Brasil.

出版信息

Cad Saude Publica. 2024 Nov 22;40(10):e00056424. doi: 10.1590/0102-311XPT056424. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Insufficient quality of the underlying cause of death in the Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM), acronym in Portuguese underlists violence and it is necessary to redistribute garbage causes (GC) into valid causes in public health prevention. This study estimated mortality from external causes using the GC redistribution method (GBD-Brazil) and compared it with SIM and estimated data from the GBD-IHME study from 2010 to 2019 in Brazil and its states. The GBD-Brazil GC redistribution algorithm applies previous steps of the GBD-IHME with modifications, using two criteria: proportion of target causes (valid) or reclassification of investigated causes. The SIM data were not adjusted. Standardized rates by direct method, local regression in the time series, and the ratio of the GBD-Brazil and SIM rates are used as correction factors for traffic injuries, falls, suicides, and homicides. Brazil recorded 1.34 million deaths with valid external causes and 171,700 CG in ten years. The redistribution of GC from GBD-Brazil increased valid causes by 12.2%, and the trend curve of the rates was similar to that found with SIM data, but diverged from each other and from the GBD-IHME in states in the North and Northeast regions. The GBD-Brazil estimates changed the pattern of external causes in the states, applying greater corrections to falls in the states of the North and Northeast and homicides in the other states. The GBD-Brazil method can be used in the analysis of violent deaths because it seeks greater methodological simplicity, which guarantees both replication by public managers and consistency of the estimated data, considering the local composition of the data in the redistribution process.

摘要

巴西死亡率信息系统(SIM,葡萄牙语首字母缩写)中根本死因的质量不足,对暴力死亡的记录不全,有必要在公共卫生预防中将垃圾死因(GC)重新归类为有效死因。本研究使用GC重新分配方法(GBD-巴西)估计外部原因导致的死亡率,并将其与SIM以及2010年至2019年巴西及其各州GBD-IHME研究的估计数据进行比较。GBD-巴西GC重新分配算法采用了GBD-IHME的先前步骤并进行了修改,使用两个标准:目标死因(有效)的比例或对调查死因的重新分类。SIM数据未进行调整。采用直接法标准化率、时间序列中的局部回归以及GBD-巴西与SIM率的比值作为交通伤害、跌倒、自杀和杀人的校正因子。巴西在十年间记录了134万例有有效外部原因的死亡和171,700例垃圾死因。GBD-巴西对垃圾死因的重新分配使有效死因增加了12.2%,率的趋势曲线与SIM数据相似,但在北部和东北部地区的各州与SIM数据以及GBD-IHME的数据相互背离。GBD-巴西的估计改变了各州外部原因的模式,对北部和东北部各州的跌倒以及其他州的杀人给予了更大幅度的校正。GBD-巴西方法可用于暴力死亡分析,因为它追求方法上的更大简化,既保证了公共管理人员能够进行复制,又保证了估计数据的一致性,同时考虑了重新分配过程中数据的本地构成。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3a4d/11654112/e8ad38a4c1ce/1678-4464-csp-40-10-PT056424-gf1.jpg

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