Istvánovics Vera, Honti Márk, Clement Adrienne, Kravinszkaja Gabriella, Pósfai Mihály, Torma Péter
Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem rkp. 3., Budapest 1111, Hungary.
HUN-REN-BME Water Research Group, Műegyetem rkp. 3., Budapest 1111, Hungary.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Dec 20;957:177616. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177616. Epub 2024 Nov 29.
The large, shallow Lake Balaton (Hungary) has experienced rapid salinization since the 1970s. This study investigated the causes of salinization and aimed at predicting the effects of climate change. Monthly mass balance models for chloride and sodium were calibrated using water balance and water quality monitoring data (1976-2022) to analyze the effects of climate change (2022-2100) through ensemble modeling under the IPCC RCP 4.5 scenario. Current (2016-2020) emission inventories were developed for both chloride and sodium. The long-term (1921-2022) emission inventory of chloride was used to build a simplified chloride balance model for the catchment. Historical salinization occurred with almost constant external loading, in parallel with the increasing water residence times. According to the mass balance model, 18-28 % of the cumulative chloride and sodium loads has been accumulated in lake sediments, potentially slowing recovery of the lake from salinization. Climate change was predicted to aggravate salinization by further reducing the water balance surplus. Even the extremely high chloride concentrations of the future will remain well below the drinking water limit, but they may adversely affect the aquatic ecosystem. Both agriculture and road deicing contributed about one-third of current chloride emissions. Wastewater accounted for <20 % due to significant wastewater diversion to adjacent catchments. The rapid intensification of Hungarian agriculture from the mid-1960s, followed by a sudden economic collapse in 1990, resulted in a large emission peak of chloride in the 1970-80s, providing a unique opportunity to estimate the long-term retention of chloride in the catchment. We estimated that 30 % of the chloride emitted since 1921 may still be present in groundwater/soils.
匈牙利的巴拉顿湖面积大且浅，自20世纪70年代以来经历了快速盐化。本研究调查了盐化的原因，并旨在预测气候变化的影响。利用水平衡和水质监测数据（1976 - 2022年）对氯和钠的月度质量平衡模型进行了校准，以通过在IPCC RCP 4.5情景下的集合建模分析气候变化（2022 - 2100年）的影响。编制了氯和钠的当前（2016 - 2020年）排放清单。氯的长期（1921 - 2022年）排放清单用于构建集水区的简化氯平衡模型。历史盐化在外部负荷几乎恒定的情况下发生，同时水停留时间增加。根据质量平衡模型，18% - 28%的氯和钠累积负荷已积累在湖泊沉积物中，这可能会减缓湖泊从盐化中恢复的速度。预计气候变化会通过进一步减少水平衡盈余而加剧盐化。即使未来的氯浓度极高，也仍将远低于饮用水限值，但可能会对水生生态系统产生不利影响。农业和道路除冰贡献了当前约三分之一的氯排放。由于大量废水被分流到相邻集水区，废水占比不到20%。匈牙利农业从20世纪60年代中期开始迅速集约化，随后在1990年突然经济崩溃，导致20世纪70 - 80年代出现了一个大的氯排放峰值，这为估算氯在集水区的长期滞留提供了一个独特的机会。我们估计，自1921年以来排放的氯中，有30%可能仍存在于地下水/土壤中。
